Is a booster box of BLB worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a BLB box would get you $136, 65% of the $210 it costs. A typical box gives $133 and only 3.1% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
BLB pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 64 | 34 (31–37) | 1 in 67 packs | $64.48 | 27% |
| Common | 118 | 261 (248–270) | 1 in 16 packs | $54.81 | 23% |
| Uncommon | 100 | 121 (115–126) | 1 in 30 packs | $41.80 | 18% |
| Mythic | 20 | 5.6 (4.7–6.5) | 1 in 129 packs | $35.37 | 15% |
| Special treatments | 61 | 2.2 (1.1–3.6) | 1 in 1,017 packs | $18.32 | 7.7% |
| Foil common | 111 | 25 (22–27) | 1 in 159 packs | $9.70 | 4.1% |
| Foil rare | 60 | 2.4 (1.8–2.9) | 1 in 908 packs | $6.02 | 2.5% |
| Foil mythic | 22 | 0.47 (0.32–0.65) | 1 in 1,685 packs | $3.89 | 1.6% |
| Foil uncommon | 100 | 7.6 (6.1–9.0) | 1 in 476 packs | $3.66 | 1.5% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Three Tree City (BLB-260): 1 in 67 packs, 6.5% of the box value. $29.15
Lumra, Bellow of the Woods (BLB-183): 1 in 129 packs, 3.2% of the box value. $27.39
Caretaker's Talent (BLB-6): 1 in 67 packs, 2.5% of the box value. $11.34
Maha, Its Feathers Night (BLB-100): 1 in 129 packs, 2.1% of the box value. $18.19
Innkeeper's Talent (BLB-180): 1 in 67 packs, 2.1% of the box value. $9.20
Dawn's Truce (BLB-9): 1 in 67 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $7.99
The most expensive BLB cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Lumra, Bellow of the Woods BLB-343Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Mythic | $891 | €821 |
 |
Baylen, the Haymaker BLB-345Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Rare | $409 | €494 |
 |
Ral, Crackling Wit BLB-353Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Mythic | $374 | €378 |
 |
Vren, the Relentless BLB-354Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Rare | $250 | €319 |
 |
Alania, Divergent Storm BLB-344Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Rare | $216 | €274 |
 |
Gev, Scaled Scorch BLB-349Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Rare | $212 | €255 |
 |
Camellia, the Seedmiser BLB-346Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Rare | $254 | €216 |
 |
Finneas, Ace Archer BLB-348Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Rare | $143 | €196 |
 |
Mabel, Heir to Cragflame BLB-351Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Rare | $188 | €179 |
 |
Kastral, the Windcrested BLB-350Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Rare | $107 | €168 |
 |
Zoraline, Cosmos Caller BLB-355Borderless · Showcase · Inverted · Raised Foil · Foil | Rare | $172 | €144 |
 |
Lumra, Bellow of the Woods BLB-342Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $114 | €136 |
BLB booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Bloomburrow - Play Booster Display$210TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Bloomburrow - Play Booster Pack$7.99TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Play Booster as per Wizards' “Collecting” article for this set: commons, uncommons, rare or mythic (1 in 7 mythic: 60 rares and 20 mythics, each rare twice as common as each mythic). Wizards doesn't break down the wildcard or the foil of any rarity: estimated.
Pull rate sources: magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.