Is a booster box of ECL worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a ECL box would get you $67.62, 66% of the $102 it costs. A typical box gives $65.97 and only 9.1% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
ECL pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 30-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 65 | 29 (26–31) | 1 in 68 packs | $41.89 | 30% |
| Common | 96 | 218 (207–225) | 1 in 13 packs | $35.00 | 25% |
| Uncommon | 100 | 101 (96–105) | 1 in 30 packs | $20.58 | 15% |
| Mythic | 22 | 4.7 (3.9–5.4) | 1 in 142 packs | $20.57 | 15% |
| Special treatments | 58 | 1.8 (0.90–3.0) | 1 in 967 packs | $7.51 | 5.4% |
| Foil common | 96 | 21 (19–23) | 1 in 137 packs | $5.09 | 3.7% |
| Foil rare | 65 | 2.0 (1.5–2.4) | 1 in 983 packs | $3.60 | 2.6% |
| Foil uncommon | 100 | 6.3 (5.1–7.5) | 1 in 476 packs | $2.03 | 1.5% |
| Foil mythic | 22 | 0.39 (0.27–0.54) | 1 in 1,684 packs | $2.00 | 1.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Hexing Squelcher (ECL-145): 1 in 68 packs, 6.3% of the box value. $19.83
Chronicle of Victory (ECL-253): 1 in 142 packs, 3.5% of the box value. $22.76
Moonshadow (ECL-110): 1 in 142 packs, 3.3% of the box value. $21.40
Steam Vents (ECL-267): 1 in 68 packs, 3.3% of the box value. $10.27
Blood Crypt (ECL-262): 1 in 68 packs, 2.8% of the box value. $8.72
Overgrown Tomb (ECL-266): 1 in 68 packs, 2.4% of the box value. $7.72
The most expensive ECL cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Bitterbloom Bearer ECL-352Borderless · Inverted · Serialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Mythic | — | €2,650 |
 |
Bloom Tender ECL-400Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $474 | €290 |
 |
Moonshadow ECL-396Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $166 | €135 |
 |
Spinerock Tyrant ECL-399Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $74.85 | €56.45 |
 |
Harmonized Crescendo ECL-394Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $62.85 | €53.27 |
 |
Hexing Squelcher ECL-317Borderless · Showcase · Foil | Rare | $60.48 | €50.66 |
 |
Collective Inferno ECL-397Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $72.95 | €47.56 |
 |
Selfless Safewright ECL-401Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $64.46 | €46.50 |
 |
Bloom Tender ECL-390Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Foil | Mythic | $63.24 | €45.98 |
 |
Moonshadow ECL-386Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Foil | Mythic | $45.36 | €41.27 |
 |
Glen Elendra Guardian ECL-393Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $52.04 | €40.89 |
 |
Winnowing ECL-392Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $61.53 | €40.38 |
ECL booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Lorwyn Eclipsed - Play Booster Display$102TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Lorwyn Eclipsed - Play Booster Pack$4.86TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Play Booster with the same structure Wizards has published since Murders at Karlov Manor (“Collecting” articles): rare or mythic, 1 in 7 mythic; wildcard and foil estimated. To be checked against the set's own “Collecting” article. Since Aetherdrift, the Play Booster box holds 30 packs (36 before).
Pull rate sources: magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.