Is a booster box of FRA worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a FRA box would get you $64.21, 54% of the $120 it costs. A typical box gives $59.70 and only 1.8% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
FRA pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 30-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic | 26 | 4.7 (3.9–5.4) | 1 in 168 packs | $30.46 | 24% |
| Common | 91 | 218 (207–225) | 1 in 13 packs | $29.88 | 24% |
| Rare | 64 | 29 (26–31) | 1 in 67 packs | $26.37 | 21% |
| Uncommon | 109 | 101 (96–105) | 1 in 33 packs | $21.20 | 17% |
| Special treatments | 81 | 1.8 (0.90–3.0) | 1 in 1,350 packs | $6.08 | 4.8% |
| Foil common | 91 | 21 (19–23) | 1 in 130 packs | $4.49 | 3.5% |
| Foil mythic | 26 | 0.39 (0.27–0.54) | 1 in 1,990 packs | $3.36 | 2.7% |
| Foil rare | 64 | 2.0 (1.5–2.4) | 1 in 968 packs | $2.64 | 2.1% |
| Foil uncommon | 109 | 6.3 (5.1–7.5) | 1 in 519 packs | $2.01 | 1.6% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
The Theorist, Jace Beleren (FRA-43): 1 in 168 packs, 5.7% of the box value. $40.32
Hexhaven Invigorator (FRA-106): 1 in 168 packs, 2.7% of the box value. $19.22
Emrakul, the Exigent Doom (FRA-1): 1 in 168 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $12.58
Ajani Unrelenting (FRA-242): 1 in 168 packs, 1.7% of the box value. $11.86
Flickering Hound (FRA-7): 1 in 67 packs, 1.6% of the box value. $4.54
Dark Matter Manipulator (FRA-52): 1 in 67 packs, 1.6% of the box value. $4.43
The most expensive FRA cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Bloodline Recollector // Ancestral Craving FRA-402Full Art · Serialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Mythic | — | €1,689 |
 |
The Theorist, Jace Beleren FRA-415Inverted · Showcase · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $493 | €388 |
 |
Seasoned Cryomancer FRA-452Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $249 | €237 |
 |
Hexhaven Invigorator FRA-458Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $373 | €229 |
 |
Omnipresence FRA-459Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $282 | €224 |
 |
Darklight Phoenix FRA-453Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $388 | €223 |
 |
Craterclaw Colossus FRA-455Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $448 | €223 |
 |
Return to the Light Realms FRA-451Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $394 | €215 |
 |
Stingcaster Mage FRA-457Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $255 | €186 |
 |
Emrakul, the Exigent Doom FRA-413Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $338 | €159 |
 |
Kwia Vigorbloom FRA-420Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $242 | €134 |
 |
Denzilore Fatehold FRA-418Showcase · Inverted · Full Art · Fracture Foil · Foil | Mythic | $149 | €103 |
FRA booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Reality Fracture - Play Booster Display$120TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Reality Fracture - Play Booster$5.08TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Play Booster with the same structure Wizards has published since Murders at Karlov Manor (“Collecting” articles): rare or mythic, 1 in 7 mythic; wildcard and foil estimated. To be checked against the set's own “Collecting” article. Since Aetherdrift, the Play Booster box holds 30 packs (36 before).
Pull rate sources: magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.
Make a Reality Fracture binder Open it in the Kolekto Market