Is a booster box of HOB worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a HOB box would get you $72.59, 55% of the $131 it costs. A typical box gives $68.69 and only 2.2% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
HOB pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 30-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 79 | 218 (207–225) | 1 in 11 packs | $43.11 | 30% |
| Mythic | 15 | 4.7 (3.9–5.4) | 1 in 97 packs | $35.52 | 25% |
| Uncommon | 55 | 101 (96–105) | 1 in 16 packs | $21.60 | 15% |
| Rare | 53 | 29 (26–31) | 1 in 56 packs | $15.67 | 11% |
| Special treatments | 38 | 1.8 (0.90–3.0) | 1 in 633 packs | $14.67 | 10% |
| Foil common | 83 | 21 (19–23) | 1 in 119 packs | $6.66 | 4.6% |
| Foil mythic | 15 | 0.39 (0.27–0.54) | 1 in 1,148 packs | $3.27 | 2.3% |
| Foil uncommon | 55 | 6.3 (5.1–7.5) | 1 in 262 packs | $1.91 | 1.3% |
| Foil rare | 53 | 2.0 (1.5–2.4) | 1 in 802 packs | $1.38 | 1.0% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Gleaming Splendor (HOB-15): 1 in 97 packs, 7.1% of the box value. $32.78
Smaug the Magnificent (HOB-110): 1 in 97 packs, 4.1% of the box value. $19.19
The Queen of Dale (HOB-24): 1 in 97 packs, 3.7% of the box value. $16.99
Hobbit Hole (HOB-184): 1 in 11 packs, 1.9% of the box value. $1.00
Gleaming Splendor (HOB-239): 1 in 633 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $54.74
Orcrist, Goblin-cleaver (HOB-177): 1 in 97 packs, 1.7% of the box value. $7.92
The most expensive HOB cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Gleaming Splendor HOB-275Borderless · Inverted · Surge Foil · Foil | Mythic | $396 | €457 |
 |
Smaug the Magnificent HOB-249Full Art · Foil | Mythic | $24,500 | €300 |
 |
The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart HOB-283Borderless · Inverted · Surge Foil · Foil | Mythic | $153 | €219 |
 |
Smaug the Magnificent HOB-265Borderless · Showcase · Surge Foil · Foil | Mythic | $160 | €167 |
 |
Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // Flameshape HOB-278Borderless · Inverted · Surge Foil · Foil | Mythic | $158 | €156 |
 |
Thorin, Mountain-king HOB-279Borderless · Inverted · Surge Foil · Foil | Mythic | $97.59 | €120 |
|
Gleaming Splendor HOB-239Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $102 | €117 |
 |
Bard, King of Dale HOB-280Borderless · Inverted · Surge Foil · Foil | Mythic | $93.31 | €112 |
 |
The Queen of Dale HOB-253Borderless · Showcase · Surge Foil · Foil | Mythic | $111 | €95.43 |
 |
Gollum, Riddle Master HOB-277Borderless · Inverted · Surge Foil · Foil | Mythic | $85.73 | €93.34 |
 |
Smaug, Wicked Worm HOB-281Borderless · Inverted · Surge Foil · Foil | Rare | $48.24 | €74.65 |
 |
The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart HOB-270Borderless · Showcase · Surge Foil · Foil | Mythic | $81.63 | €73.68 |
HOB booster box price over the last year
Loading the price history…
There's no price history for this box yet.
Sealed product
Booster box The Hobbit - Play Booster Display$131TCGplayer market price
Booster pack The Hobbit - Sleeved Play Booster Pack$4.35TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Play Booster with the same structure Wizards has published since Murders at Karlov Manor (“Collecting” articles): rare or mythic, 1 in 7 mythic; wildcard and foil estimated. To be checked against the set's own “Collecting” article. Since Aetherdrift, the Play Booster box holds 30 packs (36 before). The foil full-art Smaug (HOB-249) has no published rate and doesn't count.
Pull rate sources: magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.