Is a booster box of MKM worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a MKM box would get you $118, 86% of the $137 it costs. A typical box gives $116 and only 27% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
MKM pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 71 | 34 (31–37) | 1 in 75 packs | $82.74 | 41% |
| Common | 97 | 261 (248–270) | 1 in 13 packs | $47.11 | 23% |
| Uncommon | 108 | 121 (115–126) | 1 in 32 packs | $27.93 | 14% |
| Mythic | 20 | 5.6 (4.7–6.5) | 1 in 129 packs | $17.79 | 8.8% |
| Special treatments | 59 | 2.2 (1.1–3.6) | 1 in 983 packs | $9.56 | 4.8% |
| Foil rare | 71 | 2.4 (1.8–2.9) | 1 in 1,074 packs | $6.47 | 3.2% |
| Foil common | 97 | 25 (22–27) | 1 in 139 packs | $5.60 | 2.8% |
| Foil uncommon | 108 | 7.6 (6.1–9.0) | 1 in 514 packs | $2.24 | 1.1% |
| Foil mythic | 20 | 0.47 (0.32–0.65) | 1 in 1,532 packs | $1.71 | 0.9% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Delney, Streetwise Lookout (MKM-12): 1 in 129 packs, 4.8% of the box value. $34.41
Underground Mortuary (MKM-271): 1 in 75 packs, 4.0% of the box value. $16.50
Undercity Sewers (MKM-270): 1 in 75 packs, 3.7% of the box value. $15.63
Thundering Falls (MKM-269): 1 in 75 packs, 3.6% of the box value. $15.08
Meticulous Archive (MKM-264): 1 in 75 packs, 3.5% of the box value. $14.81
Hedge Maze (MKM-262): 1 in 75 packs, 3.2% of the box value. $13.23
The most expensive MKM cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Teysa, Opulent Oligarch MKM-321zSerialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Rare | — | €733 |
 |
Vannifar, Evolved Enigma MKM-323zSerialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Mythic | $600 | €723 |
 |
Aurelia, the Law Above MKM-317zShowcase · Serialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Rare | $700 | €575 |
 |
Niv-Mizzet, Guildpact MKM-319zSerialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Rare | $608 | €554 |
 |
Trostani, Three Whispers MKM-322zSerialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Mythic | — | €543 |
 |
Rakdos, Patron of Chaos MKM-320zSerialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Mythic | $494 | €460 |
 |
Lazav, Wearer of Faces MKM-318zSerialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Rare | $330 | €444 |
 |
Delney, Streetwise Lookout MKM-378Showcase · Foil | Mythic | $65.89 | €49.09 |
 |
Undercity Sewers MKM-332Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Rare | $56.13 | €47.30 |
 |
Meticulous Archive MKM-328Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Rare | $36.80 | €38.48 |
 |
Thundering Falls MKM-331Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Rare | $37.07 | €36.91 |
 |
Delney, Streetwise Lookout MKM-337Showcase · Foil | Mythic | $41.38 | €36.69 |
MKM booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Murders at Karlov Manor - Play Booster Display$137TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Murders at Karlov Manor - Play Booster Pack$4.79TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Play Booster as per Wizards' “Collecting” article for this set: commons, uncommons, rare or mythic (1 in 7 mythic: 60 rares and 20 mythics, each rare twice as common as each mythic). Wizards doesn't break down the wildcard or the foil of any rarity: estimated.
Pull rate sources: magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.
Make a Murders at Karlov Manor binder Open it in the Kolekto Market