Magic: The Gathering · Expansions
OTJ Outlaws of Thunder Junction
Is a booster box of OTJ worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a OTJ box would get you $97.25, 52% of the $186 it costs. A typical box gives $94.07 and only 0.2% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
OTJ pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 106 | 261 (248–270) | 1 in 15 packs | $49.98 | 26% |
| Rare | 60 | 34 (31–37) | 1 in 63 packs | $46.06 | 24% |
| Uncommon | 100 | 121 (115–126) | 1 in 30 packs | $39.46 | 21% |
| Mythic | 20 | 5.6 (4.7–6.5) | 1 in 129 packs | $32.75 | 17% |
| Special treatments | 20 | 2.2 (1.1–3.6) | 1 in 333 packs | $6.62 | 3.5% |
| Foil common | 106 | 25 (22–27) | 1 in 151 packs | $5.78 | 3.0% |
| Foil rare | 60 | 2.4 (1.8–2.9) | 1 in 908 packs | $3.88 | 2.0% |
| Foil uncommon | 100 | 7.6 (6.1–9.0) | 1 in 476 packs | $3.40 | 1.8% |
| Foil mythic | 20 | 0.47 (0.32–0.65) | 1 in 1,532 packs | $3.16 | 1.7% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Bristly Bill, Spine Sower (OTJ-157): 1 in 129 packs, 5.0% of the box value. $34.32
Terror of the Peaks (OTJ-149): 1 in 129 packs, 4.5% of the box value. $30.66
Lively Dirge (OTJ-93): 1 in 30 packs, 3.4% of the box value. $5.46
Three Steps Ahead (OTJ-75): 1 in 63 packs, 2.0% of the box value. $6.74
Kambal, Profiteering Mayor (OTJ-211): 1 in 63 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $5.97
Insatiable Avarice (OTJ-91): 1 in 63 packs, 1.7% of the box value. $5.66
The most expensive OTJ cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Terror of the Peaks OTJ-337Extended Art · Foil | Mythic | $52.51 | €59.69 |
 |
Bristly Bill, Spine Sower OTJ-338Extended Art · Foil | Mythic | $86.07 | €59.08 |
|
Bristly Bill, Spine Sower OTJ-338Extended Art | Mythic | $57.82 | €43.70 |
|
Terror of the Peaks OTJ-337Extended Art | Mythic | $51.92 | €38.51 |
|
Terror of the Peaks OTJ-149Foil | Mythic | $33.92 | €30.96 |
|
Terror of the Peaks OTJ-149Normal | Mythic | $30.66 | €28.13 |
|
Bristly Bill, Spine Sower OTJ-157Foil | Mythic | $35.06 | €25.50 |
|
Bristly Bill, Spine Sower OTJ-157Normal | Mythic | $34.32 | €24.07 |
 |
Goldvein Hydra OTJ-341Extended Art · Foil | Mythic | $14.87 | €13.81 |
 |
Final Showdown OTJ-312Extended Art · Foil | Mythic | $13.72 | €13.16 |
 |
Three Steps Ahead OTJ-323Extended Art · Foil | Rare | $12.50 | €12.32 |
 |
High Noon OTJ-314Extended Art · Foil | Rare | $12.21 | €12.22 |
OTJ booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Outlaws of Thunder Junction - Play Booster Display$186TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Outlaws of Thunder Junction - Play Booster Pack$6.77TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Play Booster with the same structure Wizards has published since Murders at Karlov Manor (“Collecting” articles): rare or mythic, 1 in 7 mythic; wildcard and foil estimated. To be checked against the set's own “Collecting” article.
Pull rate sources: magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.
Make a Outlaws of Thunder Junction binder Open it in the Kolekto Market