Is a booster box of SWSH05 worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SWSH05 box would get you $43.14, 15% of the $292 it costs. A typical box gives $23.97 and only 0.3% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
SWSH05 pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 41 | 180 (180–180) | 1 in 8 packs | $27.83 | 26% |
| Alternate art | 4 | 0.23 (0.19–0.27) | 1 in 626 packs | $18.44 | 18% |
| Uncommon | 46 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 15 packs | $16.11 | 15% |
| Reverse holo | 123 | 36 (36–36) | 1 in 123 packs | $10.80 | 10% |
| Full Art | 18 | 1.2 (1.1–1.2) | 1 in 559 packs | $9.51 | 9.0% |
| Secret Rare | 18 | 0.74 (0.67–0.81) | 1 in 876 packs | $6.65 | 6.3% |
| Ultra Rare | 18 | 4.4 (3.0–5.7) | 1 in 149 packs | $6.05 | 5.7% |
| Rare | 20 | 23 (20–26) | 1 in 31 packs | $4.87 | 4.6% |
| Alternate-art Secret Rare | 2 | 0.052 (0.033–0.070) | 1 in 1,385 packs | $2.78 | 2.6% |
| Holo Rare | 16 | 6.4 (4.5–8.4) | 1 in 89 packs | $2.31 | 2.2% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Tyranitar V (SWSH05 155/163): 1 in 626 packs, 12% of the box value. $226
Empoleon V (SWSH05 146/163): 1 in 626 packs, 3.4% of the box value. $61.50
Mimikyu V (SWSH05 148/163): 1 in 559 packs, 2.9% of the box value. $48.09
Rapid Strike Urshifu VMAX (SWSH05 170/163): 1 in 1,385 packs, 1.9% of the box value. $76.57
Lickitung (SWSH05 113/163): 1 in 8 packs, 1.3% of the box value. $0.30
Zubat (SWSH05 089/163): 1 in 8 packs, 1.2% of the box value. $0.28
The most expensive SWSH05 cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tyranitar V SWSH05 155/163Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $226 | €194 |
|
Empoleon V SWSH05 146/163Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $61.50 | €73.82 |
|
Rapid Strike Urshifu VMAX SWSH05 170/163Alternate Art Secret | Secret Rare | $76.57 | — |
|
Mimikyu V SWSH05 148/163Full Art | Ultra Rare | $48.09 | €40.23 |
 |
Single Strike Urshifu VMAX SWSH05 168/163Alternate Art Secret | Secret Rare | $30.35 | — |
 |
Houndoom SWSH05 179/163Secret | Secret Rare | $28.27 | — |
 |
Single Strike Urshifu V SWSH05 151/163Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $18.00 | €20.48 |
 |
Rapid Strike Urshifu V SWSH05 153/163Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $15.13 | €16.09 |
 |
Phoebe SWSH05 161/163Full Art | Ultra Rare | $15.10 | €14.80 |
 |
Single Strike Urshifu VMAX SWSH05 167/163Secret | Secret Rare | $13.38 | — |
 |
Victini VMAX SWSH05 165/163Secret | Secret Rare | $18.49 | €11.84 |
 |
Corviknight VMAX SWSH05 171/163Secret | Secret Rare | $12.27 | €11.49 |
SWSH05 booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Battle Styles Booster Box$292TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Battle Styles Booster Pack$9.77TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Sword & Shield, a sheet of 20,195 packs from live breaks (full art and up); V and VMAX from CardCodex, unsourced: V, VMAX or VSTAR 1 in 8 packs, Full Art 1 in 31, alternate art 1 in 157, Secret Rare (rainbow or gold) 1 in 49 and alternate-art Secret Rare 1 in 696. Pack of 5 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 reverse holo and 1 rare or better; the rare/holo rare split is an estimate (CardCodex, unsourced).
Pull rate sources: reddit.com (opens in a new tab) · cardcodex.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.