Is a booster box of SWSH10 worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SWSH10 box would get you $44.96, 11% of the $411 it costs. A typical box gives $28.48 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
SWSH10 pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 40 | 180 (180–180) | 1 in 8 packs | $25.15 | 24% |
| Alternate art | 6 | 0.27 (0.20–0.33) | 1 in 812 packs | $20.73 | 20% |
| Uncommon | 47 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 16 packs | $17.74 | 17% |
| Reverse holo | 128 | 31 (31–32) | 1 in 146 packs | $10.58 | 10% |
| Ultra Rare | 28 | 5.8 (5.6–6.1) | 1 in 172 packs | $9.45 | 8.9% |
| Secret Rare | 27 | 0.73 (0.62–0.85) | 1 in 1,324 packs | $5.93 | 5.6% |
| Full Art | 24 | 1.2 (1.0–1.3) | 1 in 747 packs | $5.74 | 5.4% |
| Rare | 21 | 22 (19–24) | 1 in 35 packs | $5.26 | 5.0% |
| Radiant Rare | 3 | 1.8 (1.3–2.3) | 1 in 60 packs | $2.73 | 2.6% |
| Holo Rare | 20 | 6.3 (4.4–8.2) | 1 in 114 packs | $2.26 | 2.1% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Machamp V (SWSH10 172/189): 1 in 812 packs, 7.9% of the box value. $188
Origin Forme Palkia V (SWSH10 167/189): 1 in 812 packs, 3.7% of the box value. $88.69
Beedrill V (SWSH10 161/189): 1 in 812 packs, 2.9% of the box value. $70.03
Origin Forme Dialga V (SWSH10 177/189): 1 in 812 packs, 2.6% of the box value. $60.81
Radiant Greninja (SWSH10 046/189): 1 in 60 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $3.22
Machamp VMAX (SWSH10 073/189): 1 in 172 packs, 1.5% of the box value. $7.79
The most expensive SWSH10 cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Machamp V SWSH10 172/189Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $188 | €181 |
|
Origin Forme Palkia V SWSH10 167/189Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $88.69 | €84.59 |
|
Beedrill V SWSH10 161/189Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $70.03 | €53.01 |
|
Origin Forme Dialga V SWSH10 177/189Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $60.81 | €49.05 |
 |
Hisuian Sneasler V SWSH10 175/189Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $32.89 | €31.34 |
 |
Hisuian Lilligant V SWSH10 163/189Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $27.28 | €26.85 |
 |
Origin Forme Dialga VSTAR SWSH10 210/189Secret | Secret Rare | $13.86 | €18.72 |
 |
Hisuian Samurott VSTAR SWSH10 209/189Secret | Secret Rare | $9.09 | €16.07 |
 |
Origin Forme Dialga VSTAR SWSH10 198/189Secret | Secret Rare | $16.47 | €15.61 |
 |
Machamp VMAX SWSH10 194/189Secret | Secret Rare | $17.68 | €15.00 |
 |
Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR SWSH10 208/189Secret | Secret Rare | $13.34 | €14.92 |
 |
Origin Forme Palkia VSTAR SWSH10 192/189Secret | Secret Rare | $15.30 | €14.67 |
SWSH10 booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Astral Radiance Booster Box$411TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Astral Radiance Booster Pack$10.55TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Sword & Shield, TCGplayer, more than 8,000 packs: V, VMAX or VSTAR 1 in 6 packs, Full Art 1 in 31, alternate art 1 in 135, Radiant Rare 1 in 20 and Secret Rare (rainbow or gold) 1 in 49. Pack of 5 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 reverse holo and 1 rare or better; the rare/holo rare split is an estimate (CardCodex, unsourced). Trainer Gallery cards take the reverse holo slot, but the catalog lists them as another set: they don't count here. The Radiant Rare isn't taken out of any slot.
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · cardcodex.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.