Is a booster box of SWSH11 worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SWSH11 box would get you $75.42, 10% of the $733 it costs. A typical box gives $30.41 and only 4.7% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
SWSH11 pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternate art | 4 | 0.18 (0.12–0.24) | 1 in 800 packs | $48.39 | 36% |
| Common | 49 | 180 (180–180) | 1 in 10 packs | $29.61 | 22% |
| Uncommon | 50 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 17 packs | $15.94 | 12% |
| Reverse holo | 149 | 32 (31–32) | 1 in 170 packs | $13.61 | 10% |
| Ultra Rare | 19 | 5.8 (5.5–6.1) | 1 in 118 packs | $6.57 | 4.9% |
| Secret Rare | 21 | 0.73 (0.62–0.85) | 1 in 1,030 packs | $5.28 | 3.9% |
| Rare | 28 | 22 (19–24) | 1 in 47 packs | $4.78 | 3.6% |
| Holo Rare | 22 | 6.4 (4.5–8.4) | 1 in 123 packs | $4.11 | 3.1% |
| Full Art | 21 | 1.2 (1.1–1.4) | 1 in 618 packs | $4.02 | 3.0% |
| Radiant Rare | 3 | 1.8 (1.6–2.0) | 1 in 60 packs | $2.32 | 1.7% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Giratina V (SWSH11 186/196): 1 in 800 packs, 28% of the box value. $826
Aerodactyl V (SWSH11 180/196): 1 in 800 packs, 6.7% of the box value. $201
Pikachu (SWSH11 052/196): 1 in 10 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $1.10
The most expensive SWSH11 cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Giratina V SWSH11 186/196Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $826 | €711 |
|
Aerodactyl V SWSH11 180/196Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $201 | €240 |
 |
Giratina V SWSH11 185/196Full Art | Ultra Rare | $17.27 | €26.71 |
 |
Rotom V SWSH11 177/196Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $26.78 | €25.52 |
 |
Giratina VSTAR SWSH11 201/196Secret | Secret Rare | $24.73 | — |
 |
Galarian Perrserker V SWSH11 184/196Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $22.07 | €17.85 |
 |
Giratina VSTAR SWSH11 212/196Secret | Secret Rare | $19.76 | — |
 |
Aerodactyl VSTAR SWSH11 199/196Secret | Secret Rare | $15.35 | €11.36 |
 |
Kyurem VMAX SWSH11 197/196Secret | Secret Rare | $9.28 | €8.68 |
 |
Hisuian Zoroark VSTAR SWSH11 203/196Secret | Secret Rare | $9.56 | €8.63 |
 |
Hisuian Zoroark VSTAR SWSH11 213/196Secret | Secret Rare | $7.38 | €7.69 |
 |
Hisuian Goodra VSTAR SWSH11 202/196Secret | Secret Rare | $10.12 | €6.74 |
SWSH11 booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Lost Origin Booster Box$733TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Lost Origin Booster Pack$16.74TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Sword & Shield, TCGplayer, more than 8,000 packs: V, VMAX or VSTAR 1 in 6 packs, Full Art 1 in 29, alternate art 1 in 200, Radiant Rare 1 in 20 and Secret Rare (rainbow or gold) 1 in 49. Pack of 5 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 reverse holo and 1 rare or better; the rare/holo rare split is an estimate (CardCodex, unsourced). Trainer Gallery cards take the reverse holo slot, but the catalog lists them as another set: they don't count here. The Radiant Rare isn't taken out of any slot.
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.