Is a booster box of SWSH12 worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SWSH12 box would get you $55.58, 11% of the $502 it costs. A typical box gives $30.53 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
SWSH12 pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternate art | 4 | 0.22 (0.16–0.28) | 1 in 667 packs | $27.61 | 25% |
| Common | 53 | 180 (180–180) | 1 in 11 packs | $22.45 | 21% |
| Uncommon | 56 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 19 packs | $13.25 | 12% |
| Ultra Rare | 22 | 5.5 (5.2–5.8) | 1 in 144 packs | $11.58 | 11% |
| Reverse holo | 142 | 32 (31–32) | 1 in 162 packs | $10.56 | 9.7% |
| Secret Rare | 20 | 0.79 (0.68–0.91) | 1 in 909 packs | $7.66 | 7.0% |
| Full Art | 22 | 1.1 (0.98–1.3) | 1 in 707 packs | $5.80 | 5.3% |
| Rare | 21 | 22 (19–24) | 1 in 35 packs | $4.49 | 4.1% |
| Radiant Rare | 3 | 1.6 (1.5–1.8) | 1 in 66 packs | $2.95 | 2.7% |
| Holo Rare | 14 | 6.5 (4.5–8.4) | 1 in 78 packs | $2.40 | 2.2% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Lugia V (SWSH12 186/195): 1 in 667 packs, 22% of the box value. $449
Lugia V (SWSH12 138/195): 1 in 144 packs, 3.4% of the box value. $15.00
Lugia VSTAR (SWSH12 139/195): 1 in 144 packs, 1.5% of the box value. $6.39
Lugia VSTAR (SWSH12 202/195): 1 in 909 packs, 1.4% of the box value. $39.39
Unown V (SWSH12 177/195): 1 in 667 packs, 1.4% of the box value. $28.85
Radiant Jirachi (SWSH12 120/195): 1 in 66 packs, 1.3% of the box value. $2.68
The most expensive SWSH12 cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lugia V SWSH12 186/195Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $449 | €443 |
|
Lugia VSTAR SWSH12 202/195Secret | Secret Rare | $39.39 | — |
|
Unown V SWSH12 177/195Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $28.85 | €25.49 |
 |
Lugia VSTAR SWSH12 211/195Secret | Secret Rare | $27.26 | — |
 |
Lugia V SWSH12 185/195Full Art | Ultra Rare | $16.54 | €23.75 |
 |
Regidrago V SWSH12 184/195Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $22.80 | €23.31 |
|
Lugia V SWSH12 138/195Normal | Ultra Rare | $15.00 | €19.55 |
 |
Skuntank V SWSH12 181/195Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $10.50 | €13.78 |
 |
Alolan Vulpix VSTAR SWSH12 197/195Secret | Secret Rare | $23.05 | €13.44 |
 |
Alolan Vulpix V SWSH12 173/195Full Art | Ultra Rare | $13.65 | — |
 |
Serena SWSH12 207/195Secret | Secret Rare | $14.43 | €11.66 |
 |
Serena SWSH12 193/195Full Art | Ultra Rare | $13.07 | €11.26 |
SWSH12 booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Silver Tempest Booster Box$502TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Silver Tempest Booster Pack$14.83TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Sword & Shield, TCGplayer, more than 8,000 packs: V, VMAX or VSTAR 1 in 7 packs, Full Art 1 in 32, alternate art 1 in 167, Radiant Rare 1 in 22 and Secret Rare (rainbow or gold) 1 in 45. Pack of 5 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 reverse holo and 1 rare or better; the rare/holo rare split is an estimate (CardCodex's figure for other sets of the era, unsourced). Trainer Gallery cards take the reverse holo slot, but the catalog lists them as another set: they don't count here. The Radiant Rare isn't taken out of any slot.
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.