Is a booster box of COTD worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a COTD box would get you $16.77, 30% of the $56.62 it costs. A typical box gives $15.82 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
COTD pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 48 | 168 (168–168) | 1 in 7 packs | $31.82 | 55% |
| Super Rare | 14 | 18 (18–18) | 1 in 19 packs | $11.87 | 20% |
| Rare | 20 | 24 (24–24) | 1 in 20 packs | $7.60 | 13% |
| Secrets | 8 | 2.0 (2.0–2.0) | 1 in 96 packs | $4.33 | 7.4% |
| Ultra Rare | 10 | 4.0 (4.0–4.0) | 1 in 60 packs | $2.53 | 4.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
D/D/D Wave High King Caesar (COTD-EN042): 1 in 19 packs, 14% of the box value. $6.37
Firewall Dragon (COTD-EN043): 1 in 96 packs, 5.1% of the box value. $11.86
The Ascended of Thunder (COTD-EN036): 1 in 7 packs, 3.1% of the box value. $0.52
Revendread Origin (COTD-EN084): 1 in 7 packs, 2.2% of the box value. $0.37
Samurai Skull (COTD-EN081): 1 in 7 packs, 2.0% of the box value. $0.34
Hack Worm (COTD-EN012): 1 in 7 packs, 1.9% of the box value. $0.31
The most expensive COTD cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Firewall Dragon COTD-EN0431st Edition | Secret Rare | $11.86 | — |
|
Firewall Dragon COTD-EN043Unlimited | Secret Rare | $8.90 | — |
|
D/D/D Wave High King Caesar COTD-EN0421st Edition | Super Rare | $6.37 | €4.33 |
|
D/D/D Wave High King Caesar COTD-EN042Unlimited | Super Rare | $6.09 | €4.33 |
 |
Trickstar Reincarnation COTD-EN0681st Edition | Secret Rare | $1.78 | €2.42 |
|
Trickstar Reincarnation COTD-EN068Unlimited | Secret Rare | $1.50 | €2.42 |
 |
Trickstar Candina COTD-EN0081st Edition | Ultra Rare | $2.38 | €2.27 |
|
Trickstar Candina COTD-EN008Unlimited | Ultra Rare | $2.50 | €2.27 |
 |
Punishment Dragon COTD-EN0281st Edition | Ultra Rare | $0.52 | €1.84 |
|
Punishment Dragon COTD-EN028Unlimited | Ultra Rare | $0.62 | €1.84 |
 |
Topologic Bomber Dragon COTD-EN0461st Edition | Secret Rare | $0.74 | €1.83 |
|
Topologic Bomber Dragon COTD-EN046Unlimited | Secret Rare | $0.94 | €1.83 |
COTD booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Code of the Duelist Booster Box$56.62TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Code of the Duelist Booster Pack$2.34TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
2016-2020 core booster: 7 commons, 1 rare and 1 foil per pack; per 24-pack box, 18 Super, 4 Ultra and 2 Secret Rares on average (Konami, 2015). Starlight Rares (Rising Rampage, Chaos Impact and Ignition Assault) have no published rate: they don't count. The catalog lumps 1st Edition and Unlimited cards together.
Pull rate sources: ygorganization.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.
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