Is a booster box of EXFO worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a EXFO box would get you $21.55, 34% of the $63.24 it costs. A typical box gives $21.38 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
EXFO pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 48 | 168 (168–168) | 1 in 7 packs | $36.05 | 56% |
| Rare | 20 | 24 (24–24) | 1 in 20 packs | $8.69 | 14% |
| Ultra Rare | 10 | 4.0 (4.0–4.0) | 1 in 60 packs | $8.27 | 13% |
| Super Rare | 14 | 18 (18–18) | 1 in 19 packs | $7.93 | 12% |
| Secrets | 8 | 2.0 (2.0–2.0) | 1 in 96 packs | $3.50 | 5.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Boot Sector Launch (EXFO-EN053): 1 in 60 packs, 3.6% of the box value. $5.76
Power of the Guardians (EXFO-EN060): 1 in 19 packs, 3.4% of the box value. $1.69
Artifact Mjollnir (EXFO-EN028): 1 in 7 packs, 3.4% of the box value. $0.62
Mythical Beast Garuda (EXFO-EN023): 1 in 60 packs, 3.2% of the box value. $5.23
Ghostrick Renovation (EXFO-EN074): 1 in 7 packs, 3.2% of the box value. $0.59
Contact "C" (EXFO-EN037): 1 in 7 packs, 2.2% of the box value. $0.41
The most expensive EXFO cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mythical Beast Garuda EXFO-EN0231st Edition | Ultra Rare | $5.23 | — |
|
Boot Sector Launch EXFO-EN0531st Edition | Ultra Rare | $5.76 | €4.51 |
|
Boot Sector Launch EXFO-EN053Unlimited | Ultra Rare | $4.98 | €4.51 |
 |
Mythical Beast Master Cerberus EXFO-EN0271st Edition | Secret Rare | $1.65 | €3.13 |
|
Mythical Beast Master Cerberus EXFO-EN027Unlimited | Secret Rare | $1.17 | €3.13 |
 |
Heavymetalfoes Electrumite EXFO-EN0981st Edition | Secret Rare | $2.71 | €2.93 |
|
Heavymetalfoes Electrumite EXFO-EN098Unlimited | Secret Rare | $2.03 | €2.93 |
 |
World Legacy's Secret EXFO-EN0721st Edition | Ultra Rare | $0.56 | €2.31 |
|
World Legacy's Secret EXFO-EN072Unlimited | Ultra Rare | $0.74 | €2.31 |
 |
Saryuja Skull Dread EXFO-EN0481st Edition | Secret Rare | $1.38 | €2.08 |
|
Saryuja Skull Dread EXFO-EN048Unlimited | Secret Rare | $1.91 | €2.08 |
|
Mythical Beast Garuda EXFO-EN023Unlimited | Ultra Rare | $2.13 | €2.04 |
EXFO booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Extreme Force Booster Box$63.24TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Extreme Force Booster Pack$6.99TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
2016-2020 core booster: 7 commons, 1 rare and 1 foil per pack; per 24-pack box, 18 Super, 4 Ultra and 2 Secret Rares on average (Konami, 2015). Starlight Rares (Rising Rampage, Chaos Impact and Ignition Assault) have no published rate: they don't count. The catalog lumps 1st Edition and Unlimited cards together.
Pull rate sources: ygorganization.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.