Is a booster box of JOTL worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a JOTL box would get you $38.52, 86% of the $44.99 it costs. A typical box gives $31.95 and only 19% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
JOTL pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 48 | 186 (184–192) | 1 in 6 packs | $39.22 | 47% |
| Rare | 20 | 24 (24–24) | 1 in 20 packs | $21.46 | 26% |
| Super Rare | 14 | 4.8 (4.8–4.8) | 1 in 70 packs | $7.95 | 9.6% |
| Ghost | 1 | 0.080 (0.080–0.080) | 1 in 300 packs | $7.40 | 8.9% |
| Secrets | 8 | 1.0 (1.0–1.0) | 1 in 185 packs | $5.58 | 6.7% |
| Ultra Rare | 10 | 2.0 (2.0–2.0) | 1 in 120 packs | $1.44 | 1.7% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Number 104: Masquerade (JOTL-EN055): 1 in 20 packs, 12% of the box value. $8.37
Star Eater (JOTL-EN047): 1 in 300 packs, 8.9% of the box value. $92.44
Number 102: Star Seraph Sentry (JOTL-EN053): 1 in 20 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $2.07
Flying "C" (JOTL-EN039): 1 in 6 packs, 2.9% of the box value. $0.62
Archfiend Heiress (JOTL-EN029): 1 in 20 packs, 2.9% of the box value. $1.99
Number C39: Utopia Ray Victory (JOTL-EN048): 1 in 70 packs, 2.7% of the box value. $6.59
The most expensive JOTL cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Star Eater JOTL-EN0471st Edition | Ghost Rare | $92.44 | — |
|
Star Eater JOTL-EN047Unlimited | Ghost Rare | $48.74 | — |
 |
Star Eater JOTL-EN0471st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $25.96 | — |
|
Star Eater JOTL-EN047Unlimited | Ultimate Rare | $20.16 | — |
 |
Number C104: Umbral Horror Masquerade JOTL-EN0561st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $16.49 | — |
|
Number C104: Umbral Horror Masquerade JOTL-EN056Unlimited | Ultimate Rare | $14.35 | — |
 |
Number C39: Utopia Ray Victory JOTL-EN0481st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $12.70 | — |
 |
Armades, Keeper of Boundaries JOTL-EN0451st Edition | Secret Rare | $12.01 | — |
 |
Star Eater JOTL-EN0471st Edition | Secret Rare | $11.86 | — |
 |
Bujintei Susanowo JOTL-EN0571st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $11.18 | — |
|
Star Eater JOTL-EN047Unlimited | Secret Rare | $9.99 | — |
|
Number C39: Utopia Ray Victory JOTL-EN048Unlimited | Ultimate Rare | $9.67 | — |
JOTL booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Judgment of the Light - Deluxe Edition Monster Box$44.99TCGplayer market price
- Booster pack Judgment of the Light - Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]$5.75TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
2010-2015 core booster: 8 commons and 1 rare per pack, with a foil in some packs. Konami ratios: Super 1 in 5 packs, Ultra 1 in 12, Secret 1 in 23 and Ghost 1 in 288. Ultimate Rares have no published rate: they don't count.
Pull rate sources: web.archive.org (opens in a new tab) · yugipedia.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
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