Is a booster box of ROTD worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a ROTD box would get you $39.69, 51% of the $77.92 it costs. A typical box gives $35.07 and only 4.5% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
ROTD pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 50 | 192 (192–192) | 1 in 6 packs | $36.13 | 44% |
| Super Rare | 26 | 18 (18–18) | 1 in 35 packs | $21.36 | 26% |
| Secrets | 10 | 2.0 (2.0–2.0) | 1 in 120 packs | $12.89 | 16% |
| Ultra Rare | 14 | 4.0 (4.0–4.0) | 1 in 84 packs | $6.33 | 7.8% |
| Starlight | 5 | 0.060 (0.042–0.083) | 1 in 2,000 packs | $4.91 | 6.0% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Raidraptor - Arsenal Falcon (ROTD-EN094): 1 in 35 packs, 9.0% of the box value. $10.58
Blizzard (ROTD-EN063): 1 in 35 packs, 3.8% of the box value. $4.51
Melffy Catty (ROTD-EN018): 1 in 35 packs, 2.8% of the box value. $3.29
Fallen of Albaz (ROTD-EN011): 1 in 120 packs, 2.7% of the box value. $11.15
Titaniklad the Ash Dragon (ROTD-EN038): 1 in 120 packs, 2.6% of the box value. $10.47
Triple Tactics Talent (ROTD-EN062): 1 in 2,000 packs, 2.3% of the box value. $154
The most expensive ROTD cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Triple Tactics Talent ROTD-EN0621st Edition | Starlight Rare | $154 | — | |
| Dogmatika Ecclesia, the Virtuous ROTD-EN0051st Edition | Starlight Rare | $98.95 | — | |
| D.D. Crow ROTD-EN1001st Edition | Starlight Rare | $75.20 | — | |
| Gaia the Magical Knight of Dragons ROTD-EN0371st Edition | Starlight Rare | $45.22 | — | |
| Wynn the Wind Channeler ROTD-EN0861st Edition | Starlight Rare | $36.11 | — | |
| Fallen of Albaz ROTD-EN0111st Edition | Secret Rare | $11.15 | — | |
| Forbidden Droplet ROTD-EN0651st Edition | Secret Rare | $8.69 | €9.30 | |
| Raidraptor - Arsenal Falcon ROTD-EN0941st Edition | Super Rare | $10.58 | €8.18 | |
| Gaia the Fierce Knight Origin ROTD-ENSP1Limited Edition | Ultra Rare | $8.97 | — | |
| Titaniklad the Ash Dragon ROTD-EN0381st Edition | Secret Rare | $10.47 | €7.81 | |
| Triple Tactics Talent ROTD-EN0621st Edition | Secret Rare | $7.82 | — | |
| Dogmatika Fleurdelis, the Knighted ROTD-EN0081st Edition | Secret Rare | $4.78 | €5.71 |
ROTD booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Rise of the Duelist Booster Box [1st Edition]$77.92TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Rise of the Duelist Booster Pack [1st Edition]$9.99TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
2020-2023 core booster (from Eternity Code). 9-card pack: 8 commons and 1 foil (a Super Rare or, in its place, an Ultra or Secret Rare), no rares. Per 24-pack box, 18 Super, 4 Ultra and 2 Secret Rares on average: Konami's official 2015 ratio, which the community treats as still current; Konami hasn't restated it. Starlight: between 1 per 12-box case and 1 per 2 cases (TCGplayer market articles).
Pull rate sources: ygorganization.com (opens in a new tab) · yugipedia.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
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