Is a booster box of STBL worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a STBL box would get you $120, 9% of the $1,303 it costs. A typical box gives $104 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
STBL pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 48 | 186 (184–192) | 1 in 6 packs | $73.66 | 44% |
| Rare | 20 | 24 (24–24) | 1 in 20 packs | $27.85 | 17% |
| Super Rare | 14 | 4.8 (4.8–4.8) | 1 in 70 packs | $18.10 | 11% |
| Ghost | 1 | 0.080 (0.080–0.080) | 1 in 300 packs | $17.30 | 10% |
| Ultra Rare | 10 | 2.0 (2.0–2.0) | 1 in 120 packs | $16.64 | 10% |
| Secrets | 8 | 1.0 (1.0–1.0) | 1 in 185 packs | $12.98 | 7.8% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Shooting Star Dragon (STBL-EN040): 1 in 300 packs, 10% of the box value. $216
Vanity's Emptiness (STBL-EN076): 1 in 6 packs, 6.2% of the box value. $2.67
Karakuri Merchant mdl 177 "Inashichi" (STBL-EN020): 1 in 20 packs, 4.7% of the box value. $6.46
Karakuri Strategist mdl 248 "Nishipachi" (STBL-EN021): 1 in 6 packs, 3.7% of the box value. $1.60
Wightmare (STBL-EN035): 1 in 6 packs, 3.3% of the box value. $1.42
Dragunity Knight - Gae Dearg (STBL-EN098): 1 in 185 packs, 3.1% of the box value. $40.24
The most expensive STBL cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shooting Star Dragon STBL-EN0401st Edition | Ghost Rare | $216 | — |
 |
Red Nova Dragon STBL-EN0421st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $101 | — |
 |
Red Nova Dragon STBL-EN042Unlimited | Ultra Rare | $69.73 | — |
|
Red Nova Dragon STBL-EN042Unlimited | Ultimate Rare | $69.36 | — |
 |
Karakuri Shogun mdl 00 "Burei" STBL-EN0431st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $57.78 | — |
 |
Shooting Star Dragon STBL-EN0401st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $51.72 | — |
 |
Glow-Up Bulb STBL-EN0181st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $41.09 | — |
|
Dragunity Knight - Gae Dearg STBL-EN0981st Edition | Secret Rare | $40.24 | — |
 |
Tuning STBL-EN0451st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $34.55 | — |
 |
Supreme Arcanite Magician STBL-EN0381st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $26.93 | — |
 |
Gaia Drake, the Universal Force STBL-EN0391st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $23.42 | — |
 |
Supreme Arcanite Magician STBL-EN0381st Edition | Ultra Rare | $17.98 | — |
STBL booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Starstrike Blast - Booster Box$1,303Cardmarket, converted to dollars
Booster pack Starstrike Blast - Booster Pack$29.99TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
2010-2015 core booster: 8 commons and 1 rare per pack, with a foil in some packs. Konami ratios: Super 1 in 5 packs, Ultra 1 in 12, Secret 1 in 23 and Ghost 1 in 288. Ultimate Rares have no published rate: they don't count.
Pull rate sources: web.archive.org (opens in a new tab) · yugipedia.com (opens in a new tab)
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