Is a booster box of TSHD worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a TSHD box would get you $91.66, 12% of the $775 it costs. A typical box gives $77.64 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
TSHD pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 48 | 186 (184–192) | 1 in 6 packs | $78.12 | 58% |
| Ghost | 1 | 0.080 (0.080–0.080) | 1 in 300 packs | $12.95 | 9.6% |
| Secrets | 8 | 1.0 (1.0–1.0) | 1 in 185 packs | $12.44 | 9.2% |
| Rare | 20 | 24 (24–24) | 1 in 20 packs | $11.09 | 8.2% |
| Ultra Rare | 10 | 2.0 (2.0–2.0) | 1 in 120 packs | $10.88 | 8.0% |
| Super Rare | 14 | 4.8 (4.8–4.8) | 1 in 70 packs | $9.97 | 7.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Lyna the Light Charmer (TSHD-EN024): 1 in 6 packs, 20% of the box value. $6.89
Black-Winged Dragon (TSHD-EN040): 1 in 300 packs, 9.6% of the box value. $162
Infernity Barrier (TSHD-EN089): 1 in 185 packs, 4.0% of the box value. $41.16
Infernity Doom Dragon (TSHD-EN042): 1 in 120 packs, 2.1% of the box value. $14.46
Testudo erat Numen (TSHD-EN032): 1 in 6 packs, 2.1% of the box value. $0.72
Leeching the Light (TSHD-EN061): 1 in 6 packs, 2.0% of the box value. $0.71
The most expensive TSHD cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Black-Winged Dragon TSHD-EN0401st Edition | Ghost Rare | $162 | — |
|
Black-Winged Dragon TSHD-EN040Unlimited | Ghost Rare | $99.07 | — |
 |
Black-Winged Dragon TSHD-EN0401st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $49.44 | — |
|
Infernity Barrier TSHD-EN0891st Edition | Secret Rare | $41.16 | — |
 |
Herald of Perfection TSHD-EN0391st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $38.15 | — |
 |
XX-Saber Darksoul TSHD-EN0811st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $32.28 | — |
|
Black-Winged Dragon TSHD-EN040Unlimited | Ultimate Rare | $29.01 | — |
 |
Infernity Doom Dragon TSHD-EN0421st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $28.98 | — |
|
Infernity Doom Dragon TSHD-EN042Unlimited | Ultimate Rare | $22.13 | — |
 |
Into The Void TSHD-EN0491st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $21.31 | — |
|
Into The Void TSHD-EN049Unlimited | Ultimate Rare | $20.88 | — |
 |
Splendid Rose TSHD-EN0431st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $20.82 | — |
TSHD booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box The Shining Darkness - Booster Box$775Cardmarket, converted to dollars
Booster pack The Shining Darkness - Booster Pack$16.00TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
2010-2015 core booster: 8 commons and 1 rare per pack, with a foil in some packs. Konami ratios: Super 1 in 5 packs, Ultra 1 in 12, Secret 1 in 23 and Ghost 1 in 288. Ultimate Rares have no published rate: they don't count.
Pull rate sources: web.archive.org (opens in a new tab) · yugipedia.com (opens in a new tab)
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