Is a booster box of FAB worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a FAB box would get you $586, 71% of the $823 it costs. A typical box gives $352 and only 14% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: low (the game's generic rates: this set has no estimates of its own).
FAB pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted | 18 | 0.55 (0.40–0.75) | 1 in 786 packs | $236 | 36% |
| Iconic | 2 | 0.060 (0.012–0.25) | 1 in 800 packs | $209 | 32% |
| Legendary | 12 | 5.9 (4.5–6.5) | 1 in 49 packs | $82.82 | 13% |
| Epic | 18 | 2.4 (1.4–2.8) | 1 in 180 packs | $39.17 | 6.1% |
| Rare | 48 | 32 (30–36) | 1 in 36 packs | $17.01 | 2.6% |
| Foil Legendary | 12 | 0.60 (0.45–0.65) | 1 in 480 packs | $15.05 | 2.3% |
| Uncommon | 54 | 72 (72–72) | 1 in 18 packs | $12.20 | 1.9% |
| Common | 72 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 12 packs | $11.90 | 1.8% |
| Super Rare | 19 | 10 (8.0–12) | 1 in 46 packs | $9.67 | 1.5% |
| Foil Rare | 50 | 3.0 (2.4–3.4) | 1 in 400 packs | $4.46 | 0.7% |
| Foil Uncommon | 54 | 6.0 (5.0–7.0) | 1 in 216 packs | $4.15 | 0.6% |
| Foil Super Rare | 21 | 1.1 (0.80–1.2) | 1 in 458 packs | $4.12 | 0.6% |
| Foil Common | 72 | 10 (9.0–12) | 1 in 168 packs | $2.47 | 0.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince (FAB-242): 1 in 800 packs, 18% of the box value. $3,875
Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess (FAB-241): 1 in 800 packs, 14% of the box value. $3,083
Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard (FAB-227): 1 in 785 packs, 6.9% of the box value. $1,468
Ariel - Adventurous Collector (FAB-232): 1 in 785 packs, 3.6% of the box value. $772
Mickey Mouse - Steamboat Pilot (FAB-231): 1 in 785 packs, 3.3% of the box value. $702
Circle of Life (FAB-26): 1 in 49 packs, 3.1% of the box value. $41.04
The most expensive FAB cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Prince FAB-242Foil | Iconic | $3,875 | €4,703 |
|
Minnie Mouse - Sweetheart Princess FAB-241Foil | Iconic | $3,083 | €2,358 |
|
Winnie the Pooh - Hunny Wizard FAB-227Foil | Enchanted | $1,468 | €1,602 |
 |
Circle of Life FAB-225Foil | Enchanted | $576 | €774 |
|
Ariel - Adventurous Collector FAB-232Foil | Enchanted | $772 | €628 |
 |
Dumbo - Ninth Wonder of the Universe FAB-228Foil | Enchanted | $540 | €559 |
 |
I2I FAB-234Foil | Enchanted | $570 | — |
|
Mickey Mouse - Steamboat Pilot FAB-231Foil | Enchanted | $702 | €436 |
 |
Scar - Finally King FAB-239Foil | Enchanted | $368 | €316 |
 |
Beast - Gracious Prince FAB-224Foil | Enchanted | $260 | €292 |
 |
Belle - Accomplished Mystic FAB-226Foil | Enchanted | $348 | €236 |
 |
Hades - Infernal Schemer FAB-237Foil | Enchanted | $280 | €203 |
FAB booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Box$823TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Disney Lorcana: Fabled Booster Pack$30.24TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Pack of 12 cards (6 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 rare-or-better and 1 foil of any rarity). Ravensburger publishes no odds: the split of the rare slot (rare, super rare or legendary) and of the foil comes from community estimates, with their range. Enchanted: between 1 in 72 and 1 in 108 packs. Since Fabled the foil slot can also be an Epic or an Iconic. Epic, Legendary and Enchanted from TCGTalk box counts (Wilds Unknown and Attack of the Vine!, about 200 packs each); no Iconic was pulled in either: wide range, from 1 in 2,000 packs to 1 per case.
Pull rate sources: lorcanaplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgtalk.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgtalk.com (opens in a new tab) · lorcanaplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.