Is a booster box of TFC worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a TFC box would get you $126, 30% of the $423 it costs. A typical box gives $73.78 and only 2.3% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
TFC pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted | 12 | 0.25 (0.22–0.33) | 1 in 1,152 packs | $64.14 | 40% |
| Legendary | 12 | 4.5 (3.0–6.0) | 1 in 64 packs | $27.84 | 17% |
| Foil Legendary | 12 | 0.48 (0.30–0.60) | 1 in 600 packs | $18.61 | 12% |
| Rare | 48 | 34 (30–38) | 1 in 34 packs | $10.20 | 6.3% |
| Common | 72 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 12 packs | $9.56 | 5.9% |
| Uncommon | 54 | 72 (72–72) | 1 in 18 packs | $6.84 | 4.2% |
| Super Rare | 18 | 10 (7.0–12) | 1 in 43 packs | $5.60 | 3.5% |
| Foil Rare | 49 | 3.0 (2.4–3.4) | 1 in 392 packs | $5.50 | 3.4% |
| Foil Super Rare | 19 | 1.1 (0.80–1.2) | 1 in 415 packs | $4.73 | 2.9% |
| Foil Uncommon | 54 | 6.0 (5.0–7.0) | 1 in 216 packs | $4.24 | 2.6% |
| Foil Common | 72 | 13 (12–15) | 1 in 131 packs | $4.05 | 2.5% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Elsa - Spirit of Winter (TFC-207): 1 in 1,152 packs, 12% of the box value. $953
Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer (TFC-208): 1 in 1,152 packs, 4.4% of the box value. $339
Mickey Mouse - Brave Little Tailor (TFC-115): 1 in 64 packs, 4.3% of the box value. $18.59
Stitch - Carefree Surfer (TFC-206): 1 in 1,152 packs, 3.3% of the box value. $259
Stitch - Carefree Surfer (TFC-21): 1 in 64 packs, 3.2% of the box value. $13.93
Rapunzel - Gifted with Healing (TFC-18): 1 in 64 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $12.83
The most expensive TFC cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Elsa - Spirit of Winter TFC-207Foil | Enchanted | $953 | €469 |
 |
Belle - Strange but Special TFC-214Foil | Enchanted | $198 | €230 |
|
Mickey Mouse - Wayward Sorcerer TFC-208Foil | Enchanted | $339 | €227 |
 |
Genie - On the Job TFC-209Foil | Enchanted | $150 | €222 |
|
Stitch - Carefree Surfer TFC-206Foil | Enchanted | $259 | €218 |
 |
Simba - Returned King TFC-215Foil | Enchanted | $210 | €145 |
 |
Tinker Bell - Giant Fairy TFC-216Foil | Enchanted | $194 | €122 |
 |
Mickey Mouse - Artful Rogue TFC-210Foil | Enchanted | $214 | €112 |
 |
Aurora - Dreaming Guardian TFC-213Foil | Enchanted | $189 | €96.00 |
 |
Maui - Hero to All TFC-212Foil | Enchanted | $122 | €95.87 |
 |
Hades - King of Olympus TFC-205Foil | Enchanted | $122 | €88.42 |
 |
Aladdin - Heroic Outlaw TFC-211Foil | Enchanted | $128 | €79.32 |
TFC booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Box$423TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Disney Lorcana: The First Chapter Booster Pack$17.79TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Pack of 12 cards (6 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 rare-or-better and 1 foil of any rarity). Ravensburger publishes no odds: the split of the rare slot (rare, super rare or legendary) and of the foil comes from community estimates, with their range. Enchanted: between 1 in 72 and 1 in 108 packs.
Pull rate sources: lorcanaplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · cardgamer.com (opens in a new tab) · lorcana-pack-simulator.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.
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