Is a booster box of URR worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a URR box would get you $31.42, 24% of the $131 it costs. A typical box gives $16.67 and only 2.8% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
URR pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted | 18 | 0.25 (0.22–0.33) | 1 in 1,728 packs | $17.04 | 29% |
| Common | 72 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 12 packs | $8.00 | 14% |
| Legendary | 12 | 4.5 (3.0–6.0) | 1 in 64 packs | $7.24 | 12% |
| Rare | 48 | 34 (30–38) | 1 in 34 packs | $6.29 | 11% |
| Uncommon | 54 | 72 (72–72) | 1 in 18 packs | $5.92 | 10% |
| Super Rare | 18 | 10 (7.0–12) | 1 in 43 packs | $3.23 | 5.5% |
| Foil Legendary | 12 | 0.48 (0.30–0.60) | 1 in 600 packs | $2.97 | 5.1% |
| Foil Common | 72 | 13 (12–15) | 1 in 131 packs | $2.54 | 4.3% |
| Foil Rare | 48 | 3.0 (2.4–3.4) | 1 in 384 packs | $2.30 | 3.9% |
| Foil Uncommon | 54 | 6.0 (5.0–7.0) | 1 in 216 packs | $1.82 | 3.1% |
| Foil Super Rare | 18 | 1.1 (0.80–1.2) | 1 in 393 packs | $1.43 | 2.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Diablo - Devoted Herald (URR-70): 1 in 64 packs, 4.2% of the box value. $6.64
Ariel - Sonic Warrior (URR-220): 1 in 1,728 packs, 3.5% of the box value. $149
Minnie Mouse - Musketeer Champion (URR-206): 1 in 1,728 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $129
Cinderella - Melody Weaver (URR-205): 1 in 1,728 packs, 2.6% of the box value. $109
Jasmine - Desert Warrior (URR-212): 1 in 1,728 packs, 2.4% of the box value. $101
Look at This Family (URR-207): 1 in 1,728 packs, 2.1% of the box value. $87.92
The most expensive URR cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ariel - Sonic Warrior URR-220Foil | Enchanted | $149 | €122 |
|
Minnie Mouse - Musketeer Champion URR-206Foil | Enchanted | $129 | €110 |
 |
Diablo - Devoted Herald URR-211Foil | Enchanted | $74.82 | €83.69 |
 |
Piglet - Sturdy Swordsman URR-221Foil | Enchanted | $76.62 | €83.29 |
|
Cinderella - Melody Weaver URR-205Foil | Enchanted | $109 | €80.16 |
|
Jasmine - Desert Warrior URR-212Foil | Enchanted | $101 | €78.30 |
 |
Anna - True-Hearted URR-217Foil | Enchanted | $73.24 | €71.58 |
 |
Second Star to the Right URR-210Foil | Enchanted | $59.03 | €70.67 |
 |
Sisu - Empowered Sibling URR-215Foil | Enchanted | $46.50 | €63.74 |
 |
Goofy - Super Goof URR-214Foil | Enchanted | $66.37 | €60.25 |
|
Look at This Family URR-207Foil | Enchanted | $87.92 | €60.05 |
 |
We Don't Talk About Bruno URR-213Foil | Enchanted | $34.73 | €50.27 |
URR booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Box$131TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Disney Lorcana: Ursula's Return Booster Pack$7.89TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Pack of 12 cards (6 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 rare-or-better and 1 foil of any rarity). Ravensburger publishes no odds: the split of the rare slot (rare, super rare or legendary) and of the foil comes from community estimates, with their range. Enchanted: between 1 in 72 and 1 in 108 packs.
Pull rate sources: lorcanaplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · cardgamer.com (opens in a new tab) · lorcana-pack-simulator.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.