Is a booster box of WSP worth opening?
Yes, on average it pays off: selling the cards from a WSP box would get you $310, more than the $239 it costs. But that's an average: a typical box gives $217 and only 46% of boxes get your money back.
How reliable the rates are: low (the game's generic rates: this set has no estimates of its own).
WSP pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted | 18 | 0.55 (0.40–0.75) | 1 in 786 packs | $129 | 36% |
| Iconic | 2 | 0.060 (0.012–0.25) | 1 in 800 packs | $69.59 | 20% |
| Legendary | 12 | 5.9 (4.5–6.5) | 1 in 49 packs | $49.63 | 14% |
| Epic | 18 | 2.4 (1.4–2.8) | 1 in 180 packs | $24.57 | 6.9% |
| Rare | 48 | 32 (30–36) | 1 in 36 packs | $17.98 | 5.1% |
| Super Rare | 18 | 10 (8.0–12) | 1 in 43 packs | $14.52 | 4.1% |
| Uncommon | 54 | 72 (72–72) | 1 in 18 packs | $12.39 | 3.5% |
| Common | 72 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 12 packs | $10.40 | 2.9% |
| Foil Legendary | 12 | 0.60 (0.45–0.65) | 1 in 480 packs | $8.92 | 2.5% |
| Foil Uncommon | 54 | 6.0 (5.0–7.0) | 1 in 216 packs | $6.37 | 1.8% |
| Foil Rare | 48 | 3.0 (2.4–3.4) | 1 in 384 packs | $4.22 | 1.2% |
| Foil Super Rare | 18 | 1.1 (0.80–1.2) | 1 in 393 packs | $3.90 | 1.1% |
| Foil Common | 72 | 10 (9.0–12) | 1 in 168 packs | $2.74 | 0.8% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Moana - Curious Explorer (WSP-242): 1 in 800 packs, 11% of the box value. $1,249
Pocahontas - Peacekeeper (WSP-241): 1 in 800 packs, 9.1% of the box value. $1,071
Elsa - Ice Artisan (WSP-233): 1 in 785 packs, 6.2% of the box value. $714
Angel - Experiment 624 (WSP-191): 1 in 49 packs, 5.6% of the box value. $40.18
Eeyore - In the Way (WSP-226): 1 in 785 packs, 4.1% of the box value. $475
Ohana Means Family (WSP-224): 1 in 785 packs, 3.2% of the box value. $370
The most expensive WSP cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocahontas - Peacekeeper WSP-241Foil | Iconic | $1,071 | €1,048 | |
| Moana - Curious Explorer WSP-242Foil | Iconic | $1,249 | €783 | |
| Elsa - Ice Artisan WSP-233Foil | Enchanted | $714 | €596 | |
| Eeyore - In the Way WSP-226Foil | Enchanted | $475 | €312 | |
| Ohana Means Family WSP-224Foil | Enchanted | $370 | €258 | |
| Raging Storm WSP-225Foil | Enchanted | $221 | €153 | |
| Angel - Experiment 624 WSP-238Foil | Enchanted | $283 | €151 | |
| The Cold Never Bothered Me WSP-234Foil | Enchanted | $272 | €150 | |
| Belle - Snowfield Strategist WSP-236Foil | Enchanted | $232 | €149 | |
| Anna - Soothing Sister WSP-227Foil | Enchanted | $261 | €143 | |
| Colors of the Wind WSP-228Foil | Enchanted | $220 | €132 | |
| Freeze the Vine WSP-231Foil | Enchanted | $168 | €120 |
WSP booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Box$239TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Disney Lorcana: Winterspell Booster Pack$10.72TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Pack of 12 cards (6 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 rare-or-better and 1 foil of any rarity). Ravensburger publishes no odds: the split of the rare slot (rare, super rare or legendary) and of the foil comes from community estimates, with their range. Enchanted: between 1 in 72 and 1 in 108 packs. Since Fabled the foil slot can also be an Epic or an Iconic. Epic, Legendary and Enchanted from TCGTalk box counts (Wilds Unknown and Attack of the Vine!, about 200 packs each); no Iconic was pulled in either: wide range, from 1 in 2,000 packs to 1 per case.
Pull rate sources: lorcanaplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgtalk.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgtalk.com (opens in a new tab) · lorcanaplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.