Is a booster box of SOS worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SOS box would get you $55.38, 38% of the $145 it costs. A typical box gives $54.38 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
SOS pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 30-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 101 | 218 (207–225) | 1 in 14 packs | $39.00 | 32% |
| Rare | 60 | 29 (26–31) | 1 in 63 packs | $24.68 | 20% |
| Uncommon | 100 | 101 (96–105) | 1 in 30 packs | $22.43 | 18% |
| Mythic | 20 | 4.7 (3.9–5.4) | 1 in 129 packs | $18.31 | 15% |
| Special treatments | 24 | 1.8 (0.90–3.0) | 1 in 400 packs | $8.50 | 6.9% |
| Foil common | 101 | 21 (19–23) | 1 in 144 packs | $5.13 | 4.2% |
| Foil rare | 60 | 2.0 (1.5–2.4) | 1 in 908 packs | $1.89 | 1.5% |
| Foil uncommon | 100 | 6.3 (5.1–7.5) | 1 in 476 packs | $1.88 | 1.5% |
| Foil mythic | 20 | 0.39 (0.27–0.54) | 1 in 1,531 packs | $1.67 | 1.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Erode (SOS-15): 1 in 63 packs, 3.2% of the box value. $8.29
Emeritus of Woe // Demonic Tutor (SOS-80): 1 in 129 packs, 2.4% of the box value. $12.51
Improvisation Capstone (SOS-120): 1 in 129 packs, 2.0% of the box value. $10.52
Wander Off (SOS-104): 1 in 14 packs, 1.7% of the box value. $0.96
Flow State (SOS-49): 1 in 30 packs, 1.4% of the box value. $1.74
Germination Practicum (SOS-149): 1 in 129 packs, 1.4% of the box value. $7.49
The most expensive SOS cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Emeritus of Ideation // Ancestral Recall SOS-306Full Art · Rainbow Foil · Serialized · Foil | Mythic | $2,900 | €1,865 |
 |
Emeritus of Woe // Demonic Tutor SOS-324Extended Art · Foil | Mythic | $21.01 | €17.87 |
 |
Witherbloom, the Balancer SOS-288Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $18.78 | €17.83 |
 |
Improvisation Capstone SOS-294Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $16.79 | €16.52 |
 |
Emeritus of Ideation // Ancestral Recall SOS-315Extended Art · Foil | Mythic | $9.96 | €14.26 |
|
Improvisation Capstone SOS-294Borderless · Inverted | Mythic | $14.01 | €13.86 |
|
Emeritus of Woe // Demonic Tutor SOS-324Extended Art | Mythic | $16.30 | €13.72 |
 |
Prismari, the Inspiration SOS-285Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $17.60 | €12.92 |
|
Improvisation Capstone SOS-120Foil | Mythic | $10.56 | €12.50 |
 |
Decorum Dissertation SOS-292Borderless · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $11.41 | €12.31 |
|
Emeritus of Woe // Demonic Tutor SOS-80Foil | Mythic | $13.09 | €12.30 |
 |
Erode SOS-310Extended Art · Foil | Rare | $12.77 | €11.56 |
SOS booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Secrets of Strixhaven - Play Booster Display$145TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Secrets of Strixhaven - Play Booster Pack$4.90TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Play Booster with the same structure Wizards has published since Murders at Karlov Manor (“Collecting” articles): rare or mythic, 1 in 7 mythic; wildcard and foil estimated. To be checked against the set's own “Collecting” article. Since Aetherdrift, the Play Booster box holds 30 packs (36 before).
Pull rate sources: magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab)
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