Is a booster box of PBL worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a PBL box would get you $45.82, 26% of the $175 it costs. A typical box gives $28.71 and only 0.4% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: low (the game's generic rates: this set has no estimates of its own).
PBL pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration | 6 | 0.42 (0.26–0.58) | 1 in 513 packs | $20.75 | 19% |
| Common | 37 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 9 packs | $20.74 | 19% |
| Reverse holo | 74 | 68 (67–68) | 1 in 39 packs | $17.65 | 16% |
| Uncommon | 26 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 9 packs | $16.32 | 15% |
| Ultra Rare | 18 | 3.0 (2.6–3.4) | 1 in 217 packs | $10.66 | 9.9% |
| Illustration | 11 | 3.9 (3.5–4.4) | 1 in 101 packs | $8.26 | 7.7% |
| Rare | 11 | 26 (25–27) | 1 in 16 packs | $5.46 | 5.1% |
| Double Rare | 10 | 7.5 (6.9–8.0) | 1 in 48 packs | $4.43 | 4.1% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 | 0.029 (0.000–0.065) | 1 in 1,241 packs | $3.38 | 3.1% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Mega Darkrai ex (PBL 116/084): 1 in 513 packs, 8.5% of the box value. $130
Morpeko ex (PBL 117/084): 1 in 513 packs, 3.7% of the box value. $57.08
Mega Darkrai ex (PBL 120/084): 1 in 1,241 packs, 3.1% of the box value. $117
Mega Zeraora ex (PBL 114/084): 1 in 513 packs, 2.2% of the box value. $34.32
Mega Chandelure ex (PBL 115/084): 1 in 513 packs, 1.9% of the box value. $29.59
Slowbro (PBL 090/084): 1 in 101 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $5.37
The most expensive PBL cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mega Darkrai ex PBL 116/084Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $130 | €170 |
|
Mega Darkrai ex PBL 120/084Normal | Mega Hyper Rare | $117 | €125 |
|
Morpeko ex PBL 117/084Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $57.08 | €45.62 |
|
Mega Zeraora ex PBL 114/084Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $34.32 | €35.22 |
|
Mega Chandelure ex PBL 115/084Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $29.59 | €23.14 |
 |
Gwynn PBL 119/084Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $23.78 | €21.80 |
 |
Gladion's Final Battle PBL 118/084Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $20.49 | €19.31 |
 |
Misty's Vitality PBL 111/084Normal | Ultra Rare | $8.83 | €9.82 |
 |
Mega Darkrai ex PBL 101/084Normal | Ultra Rare | $6.82 | €7.58 |
 |
Gwynn PBL 109/084Normal | Ultra Rare | $5.74 | €6.65 |
 |
Goldeen PBL 087/084Normal | Illustration Rare | $3.59 | €6.60 |
|
Slowbro PBL 090/084Normal | Illustration Rare | $5.37 | €6.50 |
PBL booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Pitch Black Booster Box$175TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Pitch Black Booster Pack$5.56TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Estimate: TCGplayer hasn't published a study of this set yet, which has the same layout as the main Mega Evolution sets. It uses the average of the four measured ones (Mega Evolution, Phantasmal Flames, Perfect Order and Chaos Rising), with the range of all of them: Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 12, Illustration Rare 1 in 9, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 85 and Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,250. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
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