Is a booster box of CRI worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a CRI box would get you $36.26, 20% of the $183 it costs. A typical box gives $22.26 and only 0.4% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
CRI pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 38 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 10 packs | $20.08 | 21% |
| Reverse holo | 76 | 68 (67–68) | 1 in 40 packs | $18.17 | 19% |
| Special illustration | 6 | 0.44 (0.35–0.52) | 1 in 495 packs | $15.81 | 16% |
| Uncommon | 26 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 9 packs | $14.37 | 15% |
| Illustration | 11 | 3.8 (3.6–4.1) | 1 in 103 packs | $8.84 | 9.1% |
| Ultra Rare | 18 | 3.0 (2.8–3.2) | 1 in 217 packs | $6.90 | 7.1% |
| Rare | 12 | 26 (25–26) | 1 in 17 packs | $4.69 | 4.8% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 | 0.036 (0.011–0.061) | 1 in 1,000 packs | $4.00 | 4.1% |
| Double Rare | 10 | 7.3 (7.0–7.6) | 1 in 49 packs | $3.98 | 4.1% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Mega Greninja ex (CRI 116/086): 1 in 495 packs, 7.9% of the box value. $106
Mega Greninja ex (CRI 122/086): 1 in 1,000 packs, 4.1% of the box value. $111
Cinccino ex (CRI 119/086): 1 in 495 packs, 2.7% of the box value. $36.51
Mega Dragalge ex (CRI 118/086): 1 in 495 packs, 1.7% of the box value. $22.06
Froakie (CRI 088/086): 1 in 103 packs, 1.5% of the box value. $4.30
Mega Floette ex (CRI 117/086): 1 in 495 packs, 1.5% of the box value. $19.51
The most expensive CRI cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mega Greninja ex CRI 122/086Normal | Mega Hyper Rare | $111 | €116 |
|
Mega Greninja ex CRI 116/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $106 | €105 |
|
Cinccino ex CRI 119/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $36.51 | €33.25 |
|
Mega Dragalge ex CRI 118/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $22.06 | €23.46 |
|
Mega Floette ex CRI 117/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $19.51 | €20.35 |
 |
AZ's Tranquility CRI 120/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $18.18 | €19.71 |
 |
Roxie's Performance CRI 121/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $15.43 | €13.86 |
 |
Mega Greninja ex CRI 100/086Normal | Ultra Rare | $7.40 | €7.02 |
 |
Xerneas CRI 091/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $3.88 | €5.20 |
 |
Ampharos CRI 090/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $3.56 | €5.08 |
|
Froakie CRI 088/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $4.30 | €5.05 |
 |
Frogadier CRI 089/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $2.93 | €4.11 |
CRI booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Chaos Rising Booster Box$183TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Chaos Rising Booster Pack$5.80TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,500 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 12, Illustration Rare 1 in 9, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 83 and Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 956. Very few Mega Hyper Rares in the sample: wide range. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.