Is a booster box of SVI worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SVI box would get you $74.64, 25% of the $299 it costs. A typical box gives $70.21 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
SVI pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 24 | 2.8 (2.6–3.0) | 1 in 313 packs | $44.43 | 33% |
| Common | 105 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 26 packs | $19.49 | 14% |
| Reverse holo | 186 | 67 (67–68) | 1 in 99 packs | $17.67 | 13% |
| Special illustration | 10 | 1.1 (1.0–1.3) | 1 in 318 packs | $17.39 | 13% |
| Uncommon | 60 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 20 packs | $15.14 | 11% |
| Ultra Rare | 20 | 2.4 (2.2–2.6) | 1 in 304 packs | $7.26 | 5.4% |
| Rare | 21 | 29 (28–29) | 1 in 26 packs | $5.41 | 4.0% |
| Double Rare | 12 | 5.0 (4.7–5.2) | 1 in 87 packs | $4.01 | 3.0% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 6 | 0.67 (0.57–0.77) | 1 in 324 packs | $3.24 | 2.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Gardevoir ex (SVI 245/198): 1 in 317 packs, 5.2% of the box value. $61.38
Drowzee (SVI 210/198): 1 in 313 packs, 4.1% of the box value. $47.92
Slowpoke (SVI 204/198): 1 in 313 packs, 3.3% of the box value. $38.23
Ralts (SVI 211/198): 1 in 313 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $34.98
Kirlia (SVI 212/198): 1 in 313 packs, 2.8% of the box value. $33.00
Riolu (SVI 215/198): 1 in 313 packs, 2.2% of the box value. $26.16
The most expensive SVI cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Drowzee SVI 210/198Normal | Illustration Rare | $47.92 | €56.81 |
|
Gardevoir ex SVI 245/198Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $61.38 | €45.78 |
|
Ralts SVI 211/198Normal | Illustration Rare | $34.98 | €32.54 |
|
Kirlia SVI 212/198Normal | Illustration Rare | $33.00 | €32.22 |
|
Slowpoke SVI 204/198Normal | Illustration Rare | $38.23 | €25.93 |
 |
Greavard SVI 214/198Normal | Illustration Rare | $20.89 | — |
 |
Koraidon ex SVI 247/198Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $18.94 | — |
 |
Miraidon ex SVI 244/198Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $18.30 | — |
|
Riolu SVI 215/198Normal | Illustration Rare | $26.16 | €15.30 |
 |
Dondozo SVI 207/198Normal | Illustration Rare | $14.54 | — |
 |
Miriam SVI 251/198Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $16.99 | €12.47 |
 |
Starly SVI 221/198Normal | Illustration Rare | $15.90 | €11.39 |
SVI booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Scarlet & Violet Booster Box$299TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Scarlet & Violet Booster Pack$8.84TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 7 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, Illustration Rare 1 in 13, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 32 and Hyper Rare 1 in 54. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.
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