Is a booster box of PAL worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a PAL box would get you $128, 28% of the $459 it costs. A typical box gives $107 and only 0.3% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
PAL pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 36 | 2.8 (2.6–3.0) | 1 in 468 packs | $89.96 | 47% |
| Special illustration | 15 | 1.1 (1.0–1.3) | 1 in 473 packs | $25.29 | 13% |
| Common | 81 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 20 packs | $19.36 | 10% |
| Reverse holo | 176 | 67 (67–68) | 1 in 94 packs | $16.71 | 8.7% |
| Uncommon | 70 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 23 packs | $15.74 | 8.2% |
| Ultra Rare | 26 | 2.4 (2.2–2.6) | 1 in 392 packs | $10.41 | 5.4% |
| Rare | 25 | 29 (28–29) | 1 in 31 packs | $5.86 | 3.1% |
| Double Rare | 17 | 4.9 (4.7–5.2) | 1 in 124 packs | $4.98 | 2.6% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 9 | 0.63 (0.53–0.73) | 1 in 511 packs | $3.73 | 1.9% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Magikarp (PAL 203/193): 1 in 468 packs, 12% of the box value. $292
Raichu (PAL 211/193): 1 in 468 packs, 3.6% of the box value. $90.94
Maushold (PAL 226/193): 1 in 468 packs, 3.2% of the box value. $79.61
Tyranitar (PAL 222/193): 1 in 468 packs, 2.7% of the box value. $66.38
Sprigatito (PAL 196/193): 1 in 468 packs, 2.0% of the box value. $49.57
Tinkaton ex (PAL 262/193): 1 in 473 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $46.17
The most expensive PAL cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Magikarp PAL 203/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $292 | €170 |
|
Raichu PAL 211/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $90.94 | — |
|
Tyranitar PAL 222/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $66.38 | — |
 |
Chi-Yu ex PAL 259/193Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $43.49 | €45.53 |
|
Sprigatito PAL 196/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $49.57 | — |
 |
Marill PAL 204/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $44.32 | €43.90 |
 |
Iono PAL 269/193Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $45.77 | — |
|
Maushold PAL 226/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $79.61 | €40.39 |
 |
Baxcalibur PAL 210/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $31.87 | — |
 |
Tinkatuff PAL 217/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $29.62 | — |
 |
Tinkatink PAL 216/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $26.95 | — |
 |
Mismagius PAL 212/193Normal | Illustration Rare | $34.31 | €22.88 |
PAL booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Paldea Evolved Booster Box$459TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Paldea Evolved Booster Pack$15.86TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 7 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, Illustration Rare 1 in 13, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 32 and Hyper Rare 1 in 57. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.