Is a booster box of SWSH03 worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SWSH03 box would get you $41.32, 12% of the $344 it costs. A typical box gives $34.88 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
SWSH03 pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 53 | 180 (180–180) | 1 in 11 packs | $26.63 | 26% |
| Ultra Rare | 21 | 5.9 (5.5–6.3) | 1 in 128 packs | $24.52 | 24% |
| Reverse holo | 155 | 36 (36–36) | 1 in 155 packs | $16.40 | 16% |
| Uncommon | 50 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 17 packs | $16.31 | 16% |
| Rare | 34 | 21 (19–24) | 1 in 57 packs | $5.99 | 5.8% |
| Secret Rare | 12 | 0.74 (0.60–0.89) | 1 in 582 packs | $5.39 | 5.2% |
| Full Art | 13 | 1.4 (1.2–1.6) | 1 in 338 packs | $4.07 | 4.0% |
| Holo Rare | 18 | 6.5 (4.5–8.4) | 1 in 100 packs | $3.38 | 3.3% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Charizard VMAX (SWSH03 020/189): 1 in 128 packs, 11% of the box value. $38.17
Mew V (SWSH03 069/189): 1 in 128 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $6.52
Charizard V (SWSH03 019/189): 1 in 128 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $6.51
Butterfree VMAX (SWSH03 002/189): 1 in 128 packs, 1.6% of the box value. $5.89
Scizor VMAX (SWSH03 119/189): 1 in 128 packs, 1.2% of the box value. $4.51
Trapinch (SWSH03 089/189): 1 in 11 packs, 1.1% of the box value. $0.34
The most expensive SWSH03 cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Charizard VMAX SWSH03 020/189Normal | Ultra Rare | $38.17 | €38.93 |
 |
Scizor VMAX SWSH03 193/189Secret | Secret Rare | $13.05 | €20.40 |
 |
Butterfree VMAX SWSH03 190/189Secret | Secret Rare | $17.01 | €18.64 |
 |
Salamence VMAX SWSH03 194/189Secret | Secret Rare | $14.15 | €13.84 |
 |
Eternatus VMAX SWSH03 192/189Secret | Secret Rare | $9.86 | €12.31 |
 |
Rillaboom SWSH03 197/189Secret | Secret Rare | $7.70 | €9.86 |
|
Butterfree VMAX SWSH03 002/189Normal | Ultra Rare | $5.89 | €8.85 |
 |
Coalossal SWSH03 198/189Secret | Secret Rare | $5.00 | €8.52 |
|
Charizard V SWSH03 019/189Normal | Ultra Rare | $6.51 | €7.15 |
 |
Pokemon Breeder's Nurturing SWSH03 195/189Secret | Secret Rare | $3.48 | €6.09 |
 |
Houndoom V SWSH03 178/189Full Art | Ultra Rare | $6.26 | €6.07 |
|
Mew V SWSH03 069/189Normal | Ultra Rare | $6.52 | — |
SWSH03 booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Darkness Ablaze Booster Box$344TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Darkness Ablaze Booster Pack$10.33TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Sword & Shield, elitefourum, 5,040 packs: V, VMAX or VSTAR 1 in 6 packs, Full Art 1 in 26 and Secret Rare (rainbow or gold) 1 in 49. Pack of 5 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 reverse holo and 1 rare or better; the rare/holo rare split is an estimate (CardCodex's figure for other sets of the era, unsourced).
Pull rate sources: elitefourum.com (opens in a new tab) · cardcodex.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.