Is a booster box of SWSH02 worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SWSH02 box would get you $72.03, 15% of the $483 it costs. A typical box gives $67.42 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
SWSH02 pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 50 | 180 (180–180) | 1 in 10 packs | $36.00 | 27% |
| Reverse holo | 151 | 36 (36–36) | 1 in 151 packs | $31.11 | 23% |
| Uncommon | 51 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 17 packs | $18.66 | 14% |
| Full Art | 18 | 1.4 (1.1–1.6) | 1 in 479 packs | $14.37 | 11% |
| Secret Rare | 17 | 0.88 (0.67–1.1) | 1 in 694 packs | $11.49 | 8.5% |
| Ultra Rare | 23 | 5.8 (5.3–6.3) | 1 in 143 packs | $11.01 | 8.2% |
| Rare | 32 | 22 (19–24) | 1 in 54 packs | $7.73 | 5.7% |
| Holo Rare | 18 | 6.5 (4.5–8.4) | 1 in 100 packs | $4.08 | 3.0% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Magikarp (SWSH02 039/192): 1 in 10 packs, 5.7% of the box value. $2.14
Boss's Orders (SWSH02 189/192): 1 in 479 packs, 2.9% of the box value. $52.46
Ninetales (SWSH02 025/192): 1 in 151 packs, 2.5% of the box value. $14.38
Ninetales V (SWSH02 177/192): 1 in 479 packs, 2.1% of the box value. $38.11
Boss's Orders (SWSH02 200/192): 1 in 694 packs, 1.6% of the box value. $40.33
The most expensive SWSH02 cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boss's Orders SWSH02 189/192Full Art | Ultra Rare | $52.46 | — |
|
Ninetales V SWSH02 177/192Full Art | Ultra Rare | $38.11 | €38.13 |
|
Boss's Orders SWSH02 200/192Secret | Secret Rare | $40.33 | — |
|
Magikarp SWSH02 039/192Reverse Holofoil | Common | $20.02 | €32.95 |
 |
Inteleon VMAX SWSH02 195/192Secret | Secret Rare | $13.24 | €26.81 |
 |
Sonia SWSH02 192/192Full Art | Ultra Rare | $19.74 | €21.48 |
 |
Frosmoth SWSH02 204/192Secret | Secret Rare | $15.49 | €18.03 |
 |
Galarian Perrserker SWSH02 205/192Secret | Secret Rare | $13.37 | €16.07 |
 |
Cinderace VMAX SWSH02 194/192Secret | Secret Rare | $17.54 | €14.15 |
 |
Toxtricity VMAX SWSH02 196/192Secret | Secret Rare | $23.84 | €13.34 |
|
Ninetales SWSH02 025/192Reverse Holofoil | Rare | $14.38 | — |
 |
Sonia SWSH02 203/192Secret | Secret Rare | $14.19 | — |
SWSH02 booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Rebel Clash Booster Box$483TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Rebel Clash Booster Pack$11.46TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Sword & Shield, elitefourum, 2,736 packs: V, VMAX or VSTAR 1 in 6 packs, Full Art 1 in 27 and Secret Rare (rainbow or gold) 1 in 41. Pack of 5 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 reverse holo and 1 rare or better; the rare/holo rare split is an estimate (CardCodex's figure for other sets of the era, unsourced).
Pull rate sources: elitefourum.com (opens in a new tab) · cardcodex.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.