Is a booster box of SWSH07 worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SWSH07 box would get you $213, 10% of the $2,188 it costs. A typical box gives $79.22 and only 2.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
SWSH07 pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternate-art Secret Rare | 6 | 0.12 (0.088–0.14) | 1 in 1,862 packs | $88.67 | 32% |
| Alternate art | 11 | 0.37 (0.32–0.42) | 1 in 1,082 packs | $72.11 | 26% |
| Ultra Rare | 33 | 5.8 (5.5–6.1) | 1 in 204 packs | $32.28 | 12% |
| Common | 42 | 180 (180–180) | 1 in 8 packs | $25.67 | 9.3% |
| Full Art | 27 | 0.96 (0.87–1.0) | 1 in 1,018 packs | $15.25 | 5.5% |
| Uncommon | 51 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 17 packs | $12.68 | 4.6% |
| Secret Rare | 28 | 0.67 (0.60–0.74) | 1 in 1,509 packs | $12.43 | 4.5% |
| Reverse holo | 132 | 36 (36–36) | 1 in 132 packs | $11.26 | 4.1% |
| Rare | 19 | 22 (19–24) | 1 in 32 packs | $4.02 | 1.5% |
| Holo Rare | 20 | 6.6 (4.6–8.5) | 1 in 110 packs | $2.29 | 0.8% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Umbreon VMAX (SWSH07 215/203): 1 in 1,862 packs, 16% of the box value. $2,325
Rayquaza VMAX (SWSH07 218/203): 1 in 1,862 packs, 8.5% of the box value. $1,223
Dragonite V (SWSH07 192/203): 1 in 1,082 packs, 5.8% of the box value. $479
Rayquaza V (SWSH07 194/203): 1 in 1,082 packs, 5.7% of the box value. $472
Umbreon V (SWSH07 189/203): 1 in 1,082 packs, 4.5% of the box value. $375
Espeon V (SWSH07 180/203): 1 in 1,082 packs, 2.8% of the box value. $229
The most expensive SWSH07 cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Umbreon VMAX SWSH07 215/203Alternate Art Secret | Secret Rare | $2,325 | €2,082 |
|
Rayquaza VMAX SWSH07 218/203Alternate Art Secret | Secret Rare | $1,223 | — |
|
Rayquaza V SWSH07 194/203Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $472 | €475 |
|
Dragonite V SWSH07 192/203Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $479 | €358 |
 |
Leafeon VMAX SWSH07 205/203Alternate Art Secret | Secret Rare | $372 | €356 |
|
Umbreon V SWSH07 189/203Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $375 | €334 |
 |
Glaceon VMAX SWSH07 209/203Alternate Art Secret | Secret Rare | $291 | — |
 |
Sylveon VMAX SWSH07 212/203Alternate Art Secret | Secret Rare | $360 | €240 |
|
Espeon V SWSH07 180/203Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $229 | €216 |
 |
Glaceon V SWSH07 175/203Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $145 | — |
 |
Sylveon V SWSH07 184/203Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $185 | €124 |
 |
Leafeon V SWSH07 167/203Alternate Full Art | Ultra Rare | $136 | €122 |
SWSH07 booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Evolving Skies Booster Box$2,188TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Evolving Skies Booster Pack$43.18TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Sword & Shield, TCGplayer, more than 8,000 packs, and a sheet of 19,872 packs: V, VMAX or VSTAR 1 in 6 packs, Full Art 1 in 38, alternate art 1 in 98, Secret Rare (rainbow or gold) 1 in 54 and alternate-art Secret Rare 1 in 311. Pack of 5 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 reverse holo and 1 rare or better; the rare/holo rare split is an estimate (CardCodex, unsourced).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · docs.google.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.