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Yu-Gi-Oh! · Core boosters

ORCS Order of Chaos

Released 24 January 2012 · 225 cards · 24 packs per box

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Order of Chaos - Booster Box [Unlimited Edition]

Is a booster box of ORCS worth opening?

Box price$200TCGplayer market price
Expected value$82.22$81.71 to $83.76 depending on the rates
If you sell the cards$37.04With a 5% fee and leaving out cards under $0.50
A typical box$31.72The median of 10,000 simulated boxes
You get your money back0.0%Almost never

On average, no: selling the cards from a ORCS box would get you $37.04, 19% of the $200 it costs. A typical box gives $31.72 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.

How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).

ORCS pull rates

How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.

RarityCardsPer boxOne specificAddsShare
Common 48 186 (184–192) 1 in 6 packs $47.59 58%
Super Rare 14 4.8 (4.8–4.8) 1 in 70 packs $13.00 16%
Secrets 8 1.0 (1.0–1.0) 1 in 185 packs $7.35 8.9%
Rare 20 24 (24–24) 1 in 20 packs $7.08 8.6%
Ultra Rare 10 2.0 (2.0–2.0) 1 in 120 packs $4.33 5.3%
Ghost 1 0.080 (0.080–0.080) 1 in 300 packs $2.88 3.5%

The cards that carry the box

What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.

The most expensive ORCS cards

Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.

CardRarityTCGplayerCardmarket
Number C39: Utopia Ray ORCS-EN0401st Edition Ghost Rare $35.99 —
Ninja Grandmaster Hanzo ORCS-EN0291st Edition Ultimate Rare $25.82 —
Wind-Up Rat ORCS-EN0231st Edition Super Rare $22.20 —
Wind-Up Carrier Zenmaity ORCS-EN0441st Edition Ultimate Rare $22.14 —
Wind-Up Rat ORCS-EN023Unlimited Super Rare $20.24 —
Number C39: Utopia Ray ORCS-EN040Unlimited Ghost Rare $19.01 —
Inzektor Giga-Mantis ORCS-EN0211st Edition Ultimate Rare $16.96 —
Number 12: Crimson Shadow Armor Ninja ORCS-EN0421st Edition Ultimate Rare $14.14 —
Inzektor Sword - Zektkaliber ORCS-EN0541st Edition Ultimate Rare $13.26 —
Number C39: Utopia Ray ORCS-EN0401st Edition Ultimate Rare $12.45 —
Wind-Up Arsenal Zenmaioh ORCS-EN0981st Edition Secret Rare $11.63 —
Number 12: Crimson Shadow Armor Ninja ORCS-EN042Unlimited Ultimate Rare $10.95 —

ORCS booster box price over the last year

Loading the price history…

TCGplayer market price, in dollars.

Sealed product

Where the numbers come from

The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.

2010-2015 core booster: 8 commons and 1 rare per pack, with a foil in some packs. Konami ratios: Super 1 in 5 packs, Ultra 1 in 12, Secret 1 in 23 and Ghost 1 in 288. Ultimate Rares have no published rate: they don't count.

Pull rate sources: web.archive.org (opens in a new tab) · yugipedia.com (opens in a new tab)

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Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.

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