Is a booster box of ORCS worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a ORCS box would get you $37.04, 19% of the $200 it costs. A typical box gives $31.72 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
ORCS pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 48 | 186 (184–192) | 1 in 6 packs | $47.59 | 58% |
| Super Rare | 14 | 4.8 (4.8–4.8) | 1 in 70 packs | $13.00 | 16% |
| Secrets | 8 | 1.0 (1.0–1.0) | 1 in 185 packs | $7.35 | 8.9% |
| Rare | 20 | 24 (24–24) | 1 in 20 packs | $7.08 | 8.6% |
| Ultra Rare | 10 | 2.0 (2.0–2.0) | 1 in 120 packs | $4.33 | 5.3% |
| Ghost | 1 | 0.080 (0.080–0.080) | 1 in 300 packs | $2.88 | 3.5% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Wind-Up Rat (ORCS-EN023): 1 in 70 packs, 9.3% of the box value. $22.20
Number C39: Utopia Ray (ORCS-EN040): 1 in 300 packs, 3.5% of the box value. $35.99
Trance Archfiend (ORCS-EN035): 1 in 6 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $0.64
Familiar-Possessed - Dharc (ORCS-EN033): 1 in 6 packs, 2.5% of the box value. $0.54
Numen erat Testudo (ORCS-EN038): 1 in 6 packs, 2.5% of the box value. $0.54
Wind-Up Shark (ORCS-EN082): 1 in 70 packs, 2.4% of the box value. $5.84
The most expensive ORCS cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number C39: Utopia Ray ORCS-EN0401st Edition | Ghost Rare | $35.99 | — | |
| Ninja Grandmaster Hanzo ORCS-EN0291st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $25.82 | — | |
| Wind-Up Rat ORCS-EN0231st Edition | Super Rare | $22.20 | — | |
| Wind-Up Carrier Zenmaity ORCS-EN0441st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $22.14 | — | |
| Wind-Up Rat ORCS-EN023Unlimited | Super Rare | $20.24 | — | |
| Number C39: Utopia Ray ORCS-EN040Unlimited | Ghost Rare | $19.01 | — | |
| Inzektor Giga-Mantis ORCS-EN0211st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $16.96 | — | |
| Number 12: Crimson Shadow Armor Ninja ORCS-EN0421st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $14.14 | — | |
| Inzektor Sword - Zektkaliber ORCS-EN0541st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $13.26 | — | |
| Number C39: Utopia Ray ORCS-EN0401st Edition | Ultimate Rare | $12.45 | — | |
| Wind-Up Arsenal Zenmaioh ORCS-EN0981st Edition | Secret Rare | $11.63 | — | |
| Number 12: Crimson Shadow Armor Ninja ORCS-EN042Unlimited | Ultimate Rare | $10.95 | — |
ORCS booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Order of Chaos - Booster Box [Unlimited Edition]$200TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Order of Chaos - Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition]$3.99TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
2010-2015 core booster: 8 commons and 1 rare per pack, with a foil in some packs. Konami ratios: Super 1 in 5 packs, Ultra 1 in 12, Secret 1 in 23 and Ghost 1 in 288. Ultimate Rares have no published rate: they don't count.
Pull rate sources: web.archive.org (opens in a new tab) · yugipedia.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.