Is a booster box of AOV worth opening?
Yes, on average it pays off: selling the cards from a AOV box would get you $206, more than the $177 it costs. But that's an average: a typical box gives $92.04 and only 20% of boxes get your money back.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
AOV pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 24-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iconic | 2 | 0.060 (0.012–0.25) | 1 in 800 packs | $100 | 41% |
| Enchanted | 18 | 0.55 (0.40–0.75) | 1 in 786 packs | $89.72 | 37% |
| Common | 72 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 12 packs | $8.70 | 3.6% |
| Rare | 51 | 32 (30–36) | 1 in 38 packs | $7.64 | 3.1% |
| Legendary | 12 | 5.9 (4.5–6.5) | 1 in 49 packs | $6.92 | 2.8% |
| Uncommon | 54 | 72 (72–72) | 1 in 18 packs | $6.55 | 2.7% |
| Epic | 18 | 2.4 (1.4–2.8) | 1 in 180 packs | $5.33 | 2.2% |
| Super Rare | 18 | 10 (8.0–12) | 1 in 43 packs | $5.06 | 2.1% |
| Foil Uncommon | 54 | 6.0 (5.0–7.0) | 1 in 216 packs | $3.95 | 1.6% |
| Foil Common | 72 | 10 (9.0–12) | 1 in 168 packs | $2.38 | 1.0% |
| Foil Legendary | 12 | 0.60 (0.45–0.65) | 1 in 480 packs | $2.37 | 1.0% |
| Foil Rare | 51 | 3.0 (2.4–3.4) | 1 in 408 packs | $2.15 | 0.9% |
| Foil Super Rare | 18 | 1.1 (0.80–1.2) | 1 in 393 packs | $2.11 | 0.9% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun (AOV-245): 1 in 800 packs, 22% of the box value. $1,817
Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends (AOV-244): 1 in 800 packs, 19% of the box value. $1,526
Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages (AOV-234): 1 in 785 packs, 9.2% of the box value. $729
Mickey Mouse & Minnie Mouse - Adventuring Duo (AOV-238): 1 in 785 packs, 4.1% of the box value. $325
Woody & Buzz Lightyear - Best Buddies (AOV-228): 1 in 785 packs, 3.7% of the box value. $296
Sulley & Boo - Scare Buddies (AOV-229): 1 in 785 packs, 2.4% of the box value. $188
The most expensive AOV cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Belle & Beast - Certain as the Sun AOV-245Foil | Iconic | $1,817 | €1,025 |
|
Lilo & Stitch - Fun-Loving Friends AOV-244Foil | Iconic | $1,526 | €794 |
|
Winnie the Pooh & Piglet - Hunny Mages AOV-234Foil | Enchanted | $729 | €314 |
|
Mickey Mouse & Minnie Mouse - Adventuring Duo AOV-238Foil | Enchanted | $325 | €204 |
|
Woody & Buzz Lightyear - Best Buddies AOV-228Foil | Enchanted | $296 | €140 |
 |
Peter Pan & Tinker Bell - Fast Friends AOV-233Foil | Enchanted | $153 | €117 |
 |
Mike Wazowski - Heroic Climber AOV-226Foil | Enchanted | $108 | €100 |
 |
Rapunzel & Flynn Rider - Unlikely Pair AOV-239Foil | Enchanted | $151 | €98.26 |
 |
Aladdin & Genie - Mischievous Pals AOV-232Foil | Enchanted | $161 | €96.26 |
|
Sulley & Boo - Scare Buddies AOV-229Foil | Enchanted | $188 | €85.61 |
 |
Pocahontas & Meeko - Adventurous Friends AOV-227Foil | Enchanted | $89.88 | €85.21 |
 |
Maleficent & Diablo - Evil Incarnate AOV-235Foil | Enchanted | $98.82 | €79.64 |
AOV booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Box$177TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Disney Lorcana: Attack of the Vine! Booster Pack$8.76TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Pack of 12 cards (6 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 rare-or-better and 1 foil of any rarity). Ravensburger publishes no odds: the split of the rare slot (rare, super rare or legendary) and of the foil comes from community estimates, with their range. Enchanted: between 1 in 72 and 1 in 108 packs. Since Fabled the foil slot can also be an Epic or an Iconic. Epic, Legendary and Enchanted from TCGTalk box counts (Wilds Unknown and Attack of the Vine!, about 200 packs each); no Iconic was pulled in either: wide range, from 1 in 2,000 packs to 1 per case.
Pull rate sources: lorcanaplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · tcgtalk.com (opens in a new tab) · lorcanaplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.
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