Is a booster box of TDM worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a TDM box would get you $98.54, 59% of the $167 it costs. A typical box gives $94.01 and only 4.7% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
TDM pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 30-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic | 20 | 4.7 (3.9–5.4) | 1 in 129 packs | $41.48 | 24% |
| Common | 101 | 216 (206–224) | 1 in 14 packs | $39.80 | 23% |
| Rare | 60 | 29 (26–31) | 1 in 63 packs | $39.18 | 23% |
| Uncommon | 100 | 101 (96–105) | 1 in 30 packs | $23.56 | 14% |
| Special treatments | 86 | 1.8 (0.90–3.0) | 1 in 1,433 packs | $7.51 | 4.3% |
| Full-art basic land | 10 | 1.1 (1.1–1.1) | 1 in 286 packs | $5.15 | 3.0% |
| Foil common | 101 | 21 (18–23) | 1 in 146 packs | $5.06 | 2.9% |
| Foil mythic | 20 | 0.39 (0.27–0.54) | 1 in 1,531 packs | $3.91 | 2.3% |
| Foil rare | 60 | 2.0 (1.5–2.4) | 1 in 908 packs | $3.40 | 2.0% |
| Foil full-art basic land | 10 | 0.27 (0.27–0.27) | 1 in 1,111 packs | $2.31 | 1.3% |
| Foil uncommon | 100 | 6.3 (5.1–7.5) | 1 in 476 packs | $1.96 | 1.1% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Elspeth, Storm Slayer (TDM-11): 1 in 129 packs, 7.2% of the box value. $53.48
Ugin, Eye of the Storms (TDM-1): 1 in 129 packs, 5.2% of the box value. $39.05
Voice of Victory (TDM-33): 1 in 63 packs, 5.2% of the box value. $18.97
Craterhoof Behemoth (TDM-138): 1 in 129 packs, 3.4% of the box value. $25.54
Tempest Hawk (TDM-31): 1 in 14 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $1.48
Mistrise Village (TDM-261): 1 in 63 packs, 1.7% of the box value. $6.30
The most expensive TDM cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Mox Jasper TDM-419Retro Frame · Serialized · Double Rainbow · Foil | Mythic | $2,825 | €2,097 |
 |
Ugin, Eye of the Storms TDM-409Showcase · Inverted · Halo Foil · Foil | Mythic | $466 | €367 |
 |
Elspeth, Storm Slayer TDM-411Showcase · Inverted · Halo Foil · Foil | Mythic | $324 | €191 |
 |
Craterhoof Behemoth TDM-414Showcase · Inverted · Halo Foil · Foil | Mythic | $285 | €186 |
 |
Ugin, Eye of the Storms TDM-399Showcase · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $101 | €99.08 |
 |
Clarion Conqueror TDM-410Showcase · Inverted · Halo Foil · Foil | Mythic | $110 | €76.21 |
 |
Dracogenesis TDM-412Showcase · Inverted · Halo Foil · Foil | Mythic | $140 | €69.83 |
 |
Elspeth, Storm Slayer TDM-401Showcase · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $109 | €67.04 |
 |
Ugin, Eye of the Storms // Ugin, Eye of the Storms TDM-382Borderless · Foil | Mythic | $49.96 | €52.96 |
|
Ugin, Eye of the Storms TDM-1Foil | Mythic | $45.07 | €52.28 |
|
Ugin, Eye of the Storms // Ugin, Eye of the Storms TDM-382Borderless | Mythic | $45.46 | €44.60 |
 |
Craterhoof Behemoth TDM-404Showcase · Inverted · Foil | Mythic | $73.24 | €42.43 |
TDM booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Tarkir: Dragonstorm - Play Booster Display$167TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Tarkir: Dragonstorm - Play Booster Pack$6.69TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Play Booster with the same structure Wizards has published since Murders at Karlov Manor (“Collecting” articles): rare or mythic, 1 in 7 mythic; wildcard and foil estimated. To be checked against the set's own “Collecting” article. Since Aetherdrift, the Play Booster box holds 30 packs (36 before). Full-art basic lands are counted apart, at the land-slot rate Wizards publishes.
Pull rate sources: magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab) · magic.wizards.com (opens in a new tab)
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