Is a booster box of ASC worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a ASC box would get you $119, 32% of the $376 it costs. A typical box gives $67.77 and only 7.5% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
ASC pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration | 22 | 0.51 (0.38–0.66) | 1 in 1,553 packs | $63.17 | 34% |
| Common | 84 | 144 (140–144) | 1 in 21 packs | $24.19 | 13% |
| Illustration | 33 | 4.0 (3.6–4.4) | 1 in 297 packs | $22.51 | 12% |
| Reverse holo | 48 | 55 (40–67) | 1 in 31 packs | $18.75 | 10% |
| Uncommon | 69 | 108 (104–108) | 1 in 23 packs | $18.69 | 10% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 2 | 0.067 (0.030–0.12) | 1 in 1,075 packs | $12.53 | 6.7% |
| Mega Attack Rare | 7 | 1.2 (1.0–1.5) | 1 in 203 packs | $12.44 | 6.6% |
| Double Rare | 39 | 7.2 (6.5–7.9) | 1 in 195 packs | $7.67 | 4.1% |
| Rare | 25 | 26 (23–28) | 1 in 35 packs | $4.90 | 2.6% |
| Ultra Rare | 14 | 1.7 (1.4–2.0) | 1 in 295 packs | $2.69 | 1.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Mega Gengar ex (ASC 284/217): 1 in 1,553 packs, 7.7% of the box value. $626
Pikachu ex (ASC 276/217): 1 in 1,553 packs, 7.1% of the box value. $573
Mega Dragonite ex (ASC 290/217): 1 in 1,553 packs, 5.0% of the box value. $402
Mega Charizard Y ex (ASC 294/217): 1 in 1,075 packs, 4.0% of the box value. $226
Pikachu ex (ASC 277/217): 1 in 1,553 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $247
Mega Gengar ex (ASC 269/217): 1 in 203 packs, 2.9% of the box value. $30.50
The most expensive ASC cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Pikachu ex ASC 276/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $573 | €707 |
|
Mega Gengar ex ASC 284/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $626 | €549 |
|
Mega Dragonite ex ASC 290/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $402 | €400 |
|
Mega Charizard Y ex ASC 294/217Normal | Mega Hyper Rare | $226 | €249 |
|
Pikachu ex ASC 277/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $247 | €230 |
 |
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex ASC 281/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $172 | €228 |
 |
Mega Dragonite ex ASC 295/217Normal | Mega Hyper Rare | $148 | €122 |
 |
N's Zoroark ex ASC 286/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $97.02 | €112 |
 |
Lillie's Clefairy ex ASC 280/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $93.76 | €90.03 |
 |
Mega Feraligatr ex ASC 274/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $61.61 | €74.97 |
 |
Steven's Metagross ex ASC 289/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $55.60 | €70.92 |
 |
Mega Meganium ex ASC 272/217Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $46.87 | €57.23 |
Sealed product
Booster pack Ascended Heroes Booster Pack$10.45TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Special set (no 36-pack booster box: it's sold in ETBs, bundles and collections). Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 21, Illustration Rare 1 in 9, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 70, Mega Attack Rare 1 in 29 and Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 540. The Poké Ball and energy reverse holos have no published rate: they don't count.
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab) · obsidia-tcg.store (opens in a new tab) · eternacards.co.uk (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.