Is a booster box of POR worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a POR box would get you $47.26, 27% of the $172 it costs. A typical box gives $40.33 and only 0.1% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
POR pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 44 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 11 packs | $20.52 | 19% |
| Special illustration | 6 | 0.44 (0.31–0.57) | 1 in 488 packs | $17.75 | 17% |
| Reverse holo | 79 | 68 (67–68) | 1 in 42 packs | $16.45 | 16% |
| Uncommon | 24 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 8 packs | $14.36 | 14% |
| Illustration | 11 | 4.0 (3.7–4.4) | 1 in 98 packs | $12.70 | 12% |
| Ultra Rare | 18 | 3.1 (2.7–3.4) | 1 in 211 packs | $10.70 | 10% |
| Rare | 11 | 25 (25–26) | 1 in 16 packs | $6.14 | 5.8% |
| Double Rare | 9 | 7.5 (7.1–8.0) | 1 in 43 packs | $5.21 | 4.9% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 | 0.022 (0.000–0.050) | 1 in 1,636 packs | $1.82 | 1.7% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Meowth ex (POR 121/088): 1 in 488 packs, 5.6% of the box value. $80.75
Clefairy (POR 094/088): 1 in 98 packs, 4.7% of the box value. $13.53
Mega Zygarde ex (POR 120/088): 1 in 488 packs, 2.8% of the box value. $39.92
Mega Clefable ex (POR 119/088): 1 in 488 packs, 2.5% of the box value. $35.78
Rosa's Encouragement (POR 123/088): 1 in 488 packs, 2.5% of the box value. $35.53
Mega Starmie ex (POR 118/088): 1 in 488 packs, 2.0% of the box value. $29.24
The most expensive POR cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Mega Zygarde ex POR 124/088Normal | Mega Hyper Rare | $82.71 | €90.09 |
|
Meowth ex POR 121/088Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $80.75 | €73.08 |
|
Mega Zygarde ex POR 120/088Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $39.92 | €34.93 |
|
Rosa's Encouragement POR 123/088Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $35.53 | €34.36 |
|
Mega Starmie ex POR 118/088Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $29.24 | €32.29 |
|
Mega Clefable ex POR 119/088Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $35.78 | €31.73 |
 |
Jacinthe POR 122/088Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $19.24 | €20.26 |
|
Clefairy POR 094/088Normal | Illustration Rare | $13.53 | €15.35 |
 |
Meowth ex POR 107/088Normal | Ultra Rare | $11.87 | €13.20 |
 |
Poke Pad POR 113/088Normal | Ultra Rare | $9.69 | €10.14 |
 |
Mega Starmie ex POR 102/088Normal | Ultra Rare | $4.47 | €5.57 |
 |
Forest of Vitality POR 109/088Normal | Ultra Rare | $3.43 | €5.49 |
POR booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Perfect Order Booster Box$172TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Perfect Order Booster Pack$5.84TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 3,500 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 12, Illustration Rare 1 in 9, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 81 and Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,786. Very few Mega Hyper Rares in the sample: wide range. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.