Is a booster box of PFL worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a PFL box would get you $87.67, 23% of the $387 it costs. A typical box gives $35.39 and only 9.4% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
PFL pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration | 5 | 0.45 (0.34–0.56) | 1 in 400 packs | $56.37 | 39% |
| Common | 43 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 11 packs | $18.05 | 13% |
| Illustration | 13 | 3.9 (3.6–4.3) | 1 in 119 packs | $16.30 | 11% |
| Reverse holo | 84 | 68 (67–68) | 1 in 45 packs | $14.91 | 10% |
| Uncommon | 31 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 10 packs | $13.69 | 9.5% |
| Double Rare | 10 | 7.5 (7.1–7.9) | 1 in 48 packs | $7.45 | 5.2% |
| Ultra Rare | 17 | 2.9 (2.6–3.2) | 1 in 211 packs | $7.44 | 5.2% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 | 0.029 (0.000–0.058) | 1 in 1,241 packs | $5.38 | 3.7% |
| Rare | 10 | 26 (25–26) | 1 in 14 packs | $4.02 | 2.8% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Mega Charizard X ex (PFL 125/094): 1 in 400 packs, 36% of the box value. $571
Mega Charizard X ex (PFL 130/094): 1 in 1,241 packs, 3.7% of the box value. $186
Meowth (PFL 106/094): 1 in 119 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $14.34
Mega Charizard X ex (PFL 109/094): 1 in 211 packs, 2.3% of the box value. $19.45
Piplup (PFL 098/094): 1 in 119 packs, 2.1% of the box value. $9.72
Mega Charizard X ex (PFL 013/094): 1 in 48 packs, 1.9% of the box value. $3.74
The most expensive PFL cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mega Charizard X ex PFL 125/094Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $571 | €531 |
|
Mega Charizard X ex PFL 130/094Normal | Mega Hyper Rare | $186 | €242 |
|
Mega Charizard X ex PFL 109/094Normal | Ultra Rare | $19.45 | €18.89 |
|
Meowth PFL 106/094Normal | Illustration Rare | $14.34 | €18.11 |
 |
Mega Sharpedo ex PFL 127/094Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $16.93 | €16.84 |
 |
Dawn PFL 129/094Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $16.98 | €16.83 |
 |
Rotom ex PFL 126/094Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $10.43 | €12.24 |
 |
Mega Lopunny ex PFL 128/094Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $11.35 | €12.24 |
|
Piplup PFL 098/094Normal | Illustration Rare | $9.72 | €10.18 |
 |
Dawn PFL 118/094Normal | Ultra Rare | $5.66 | €4.42 |
 |
Wigglytuff PFL 105/094Normal | Illustration Rare | $4.39 | €4.31 |
 |
Dewgong PFL 097/094Normal | Illustration Rare | $3.86 | €3.69 |
PFL booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Phantasmal Flames Booster Box$387TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Phantasmal Flames Booster Pack$11.79TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 5,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 12, Illustration Rare 1 in 9, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 80 and Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,260. Very few Mega Hyper Rares in the sample: wide range. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
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