Is a booster box of BLK worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a BLK box would get you $166, 34% of the $496 it costs. A typical box gives $145 and only 0.4% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
BLK pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 69 | 5.9 (4.9–6.9) | 1 in 421 packs | $116 | 50% |
| Special illustration | 7 | 0.45 (0.16–0.74) | 1 in 560 packs | $29.83 | 13% |
| Common | 40 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 10 packs | $20.30 | 8.7% |
| Master Ball reverse | 72 | 1.9 (1.3–2.4) | 1 in 1,401 packs | $19.21 | 8.2% |
| Uncommon | 31 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 10 packs | $17.28 | 7.4% |
| Reverse holo | 80 | 53 (50–56) | 1 in 55 packs | $12.39 | 5.3% |
| Poké Ball reverse | 80 | 11 (9.8–12) | 1 in 262 packs | $5.40 | 2.3% |
| Rare | 10 | 26 (25–28) | 1 in 14 packs | $4.81 | 2.1% |
| Double Rare | 6 | 7.6 (6.5–8.7) | 1 in 28 packs | $4.31 | 1.8% |
| Ultra Rare | 8 | 2.1 (1.5–2.7) | 1 in 137 packs | $4.12 | 1.8% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Seismitoad (BLK 105/086): 1 in 421 packs, 7.2% of the box value. $195
Zekrom ex (BLK 166/086): 1 in 560 packs, 6.0% of the box value. $219
Haxorus (BLK 147/086): 1 in 421 packs, 2.0% of the box value. $54.05
Volcarona (BLK 100/086): 1 in 421 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $48.39
Kyurem ex (BLK 165/086): 1 in 560 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $63.88
Lilligant (BLK 092/086): 1 in 421 packs, 1.6% of the box value. $44.29
The most expensive BLK cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Zekrom ex BLK 172/086Normal | Special rarity | $581 | €564 |
 |
Victini BLK 171/086Normal | Special rarity | $613 | — |
|
Zekrom ex BLK 166/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $219 | €288 |
|
Seismitoad BLK 105/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $195 | — |
|
Kyurem ex BLK 165/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $63.88 | €66.78 |
 |
N's Plan BLK 170/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $54.80 | — |
|
Haxorus BLK 147/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $54.05 | — |
|
Volcarona BLK 100/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $48.39 | — |
|
Lilligant BLK 092/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $44.29 | — |
 |
Victini BLK 012/086Master Ball Pattern | Rare | $42.60 | — |
 |
Amoonguss BLK 096/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $42.04 | — |
 |
Dwebble BLK 129/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $41.20 | — |
Sealed product
Booster pack Black Bolt Booster Pack$13.77TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 350 opened packs of each set (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 17, Poké Ball reverse holo 1 in 3, Master Ball reverse holo 1 in 19, Illustration Rare 1 in 6 and Special Illustration Rare 1 in 80. Special set (no 36-pack booster box); TCGplayer gives the same rates for Black Bolt and White Flare. The Black White Rare has no rate (none was pulled): it doesn't count. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.