Is a booster box of WHT worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a WHT box would get you $157, 33% of the $482 it costs. A typical box gives $146 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
WHT pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 70 | 5.9 (4.9–6.9) | 1 in 427 packs | $109 | 49% |
| Special illustration | 7 | 0.45 (0.16–0.74) | 1 in 560 packs | $24.77 | 11% |
| Common | 40 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 10 packs | $19.80 | 9.0% |
| Master Ball reverse | 72 | 1.9 (1.3–2.4) | 1 in 1,401 packs | $17.51 | 8.0% |
| Uncommon | 32 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 11 packs | $16.84 | 7.6% |
| Reverse holo | 80 | 53 (50–56) | 1 in 55 packs | $13.63 | 6.2% |
| Poké Ball reverse | 80 | 11 (9.8–12) | 1 in 262 packs | $5.27 | 2.4% |
| Rare | 10 | 26 (25–28) | 1 in 14 packs | $5.05 | 2.3% |
| Ultra Rare | 8 | 2.1 (1.5–2.7) | 1 in 137 packs | $4.48 | 2.0% |
| Double Rare | 6 | 7.6 (6.5–8.7) | 1 in 28 packs | $4.26 | 1.9% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Reshiram ex (WHT 166/086): 1 in 560 packs, 4.4% of the box value. $151
Zoroark (WHT 143/086): 1 in 427 packs, 2.7% of the box value. $70.07
Oshawott (WHT 105/086): 1 in 427 packs, 2.7% of the box value. $69.95
Chandelure (WHT 103/086): 1 in 427 packs, 2.4% of the box value. $61.57
Hydreigon ex (WHT 169/086): 1 in 560 packs, 2.0% of the box value. $69.67
Keldeo ex (WHT 167/086): 1 in 560 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $62.73
The most expensive WHT cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 |
Reshiram ex WHT 173/086Normal | Special rarity | $451 | €492 |
 |
Victini WHT 172/086Normal | Special rarity | $528 | €403 |
|
Reshiram ex WHT 166/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $151 | €185 |
|
Zoroark WHT 143/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $70.07 | — |
|
Oshawott WHT 105/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $69.95 | — |
|
Hydreigon ex WHT 169/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $69.67 | €62.39 |
|
Keldeo ex WHT 167/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $62.73 | €52.23 |
 |
Samurott WHT 107/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $47.46 | — |
|
Chandelure WHT 103/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $61.57 | €38.05 |
 |
Hilda WHT 171/086Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $40.59 | — |
 |
Liepard WHT 137/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $38.25 | — |
 |
Emboar WHT 098/086Normal | Illustration Rare | $35.26 | — |
Sealed product
Booster pack White Flare Booster Pack$13.40TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 350 opened packs of each set (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 17, Poké Ball reverse holo 1 in 3, Master Ball reverse holo 1 in 19, Illustration Rare 1 in 6 and Special Illustration Rare 1 in 80. Special set (no 36-pack booster box); TCGplayer gives the same rates for Black Bolt and White Flare. The Black White Rare has no rate (none was pulled): it doesn't count. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.