Is a booster box of MEG worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a MEG box would get you $65.08, 22% of the $300 it costs. A typical box gives $44.92 and only 0.3% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
MEG pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration | 10 | 0.36 (0.26–0.45) | 1 in 1,011 packs | $24.21 | 19% |
| Illustration | 22 | 3.9 (3.6–4.2) | 1 in 202 packs | $19.73 | 16% |
| Common | 67 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 17 packs | $19.73 | 16% |
| Reverse holo | 122 | 68 (67–68) | 1 in 65 packs | $16.99 | 14% |
| Uncommon | 43 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 14 packs | $15.37 | 12% |
| Ultra Rare | 22 | 3.0 (2.7–3.2) | 1 in 267 packs | $13.61 | 11% |
| Double Rare | 10 | 7.5 (7.1–7.9) | 1 in 48 packs | $5.45 | 4.3% |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 2 | 0.029 (0.000–0.058) | 1 in 2,483 packs | $5.17 | 4.1% |
| Rare | 12 | 26 (25–26) | 1 in 17 packs | $5.04 | 4.0% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Mega Lucario ex (MEG 179/132): 1 in 1,011 packs, 4.6% of the box value. $161
Mega Gardevoir ex (MEG 178/132): 1 in 1,011 packs, 4.5% of the box value. $159
Mega Venusaur ex (MEG 177/132): 1 in 1,011 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $104
Mega Lucario ex (MEG 188/132): 1 in 2,483 packs, 2.4% of the box value. $204
Vulpix (MEG 138/132): 1 in 202 packs, 2.3% of the box value. $16.29
Lillie's Determination (MEG 169/132): 1 in 267 packs, 2.2% of the box value. $20.72
The most expensive MEG cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mega Lucario ex MEG 188/132Normal | Mega Hyper Rare | $204 | €171 |
 |
Mega Gardevoir ex MEG 187/132Normal | Mega Hyper Rare | $153 | €170 |
|
Mega Lucario ex MEG 179/132Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $161 | €134 |
|
Mega Venusaur ex MEG 177/132Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $104 | €121 |
|
Mega Gardevoir ex MEG 178/132Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $159 | €99.34 |
 |
Mega Latias ex MEG 181/132Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $63.95 | €78.17 |
 |
Mega Absol ex MEG 180/132Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $43.28 | €51.08 |
 |
Mega Kangaskhan ex MEG 182/132Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $51.47 | €47.83 |
 |
Lillie's Determination MEG 184/132Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $41.79 | €44.13 |
 |
Bulbasaur MEG 133/132Normal | Illustration Rare | $15.33 | €25.24 |
 |
Acerola's Mischief MEG 183/132Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $25.34 | €21.55 |
 |
Wally's Compassion MEG 186/132Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $18.07 | €19.74 |
MEG booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Mega Evolution Booster Box$300TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Mega Evolution Booster Pack$9.45TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 5,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 12, Illustration Rare 1 in 9, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 101 and Mega Hyper Rare 1 in 1,260. Very few Mega Hyper Rares in the sample: wide range. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.