Is a booster box of DRI worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a DRI box would get you $67.27, 18% of the $384 it costs. A typical box gives $45.50 and only 0.1% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
DRI pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration | 11 | 0.38 (0.30–0.46) | 1 in 1,037 packs | $29.72 | 22% |
| Illustration | 23 | 3.0 (2.8–3.2) | 1 in 278 packs | $24.55 | 18% |
| Common | 85 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 21 packs | $21.23 | 16% |
| Reverse holo | 165 | 68 (68–69) | 1 in 87 packs | $20.29 | 15% |
| Uncommon | 62 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 21 packs | $17.58 | 13% |
| Ultra Rare | 22 | 2.3 (2.1–2.5) | 1 in 344 packs | $7.41 | 5.5% |
| Rare | 18 | 27 (26–27) | 1 in 24 packs | $5.80 | 4.3% |
| Double Rare | 17 | 7.1 (6.8–7.4) | 1 in 86 packs | $4.80 | 3.5% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 6 | 0.24 (0.18–0.30) | 1 in 896 packs | $4.28 | 3.2% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex (DRI 231/182): 1 in 1,037 packs, 8.0% of the box value. $311
Misty's Psyduck (DRI 193/182): 1 in 277 packs, 4.1% of the box value. $43.04
Cynthia's Garchomp ex (DRI 232/182): 1 in 1,037 packs, 4.1% of the box value. $160
Ethan's Ho-Oh ex (DRI 230/182): 1 in 1,037 packs, 3.3% of the box value. $127
Team Rocket's Nidoking ex (DRI 233/182): 1 in 1,037 packs, 1.7% of the box value. $66.91
Misty's Lapras (DRI 194/182): 1 in 277 packs, 1.7% of the box value. $17.52
The most expensive DRI cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex DRI 231/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $311 | €401 |
|
Cynthia's Garchomp ex DRI 232/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $160 | €220 |
|
Ethan's Ho-Oh ex DRI 230/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $127 | €143 |
 |
Team Rocket's Moltres ex DRI 229/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $56.53 | €138 |
|
Team Rocket's Nidoking ex DRI 233/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $66.91 | €114 |
 |
Team Rocket's Mewtwo ex DRI 240/182Normal | Hyper Rare | $43.48 | €58.32 |
|
Misty's Psyduck DRI 193/182Normal | Illustration Rare | $43.04 | €49.05 |
 |
Team Rocket's Crobat ex DRI 234/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $43.09 | €47.24 |
 |
Ethan's Adventure DRI 236/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $26.78 | €40.07 |
 |
Team Rocket's Giovanni DRI 238/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $20.16 | €24.53 |
 |
Cynthia's Garchomp ex DRI 241/182Normal | Hyper Rare | $23.36 | €22.71 |
 |
Ethan's Ho-Oh ex DRI 239/182Normal | Hyper Rare | $17.90 | €21.81 |
DRI booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Destined Rivals Booster Box$384TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Destined Rivals Booster Pack$8.39TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 16, Illustration Rare 1 in 12, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 94 and Hyper Rare 1 in 149. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.