Is a booster box of MEW worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a MEW box would get you $300, 32% of the $946 it costs. A typical box gives $273 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
MEW pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 16 | 3.1 (2.6–3.5) | 1 in 188 packs | $115 | 30% |
| Special illustration | 7 | 1.1 (0.83–1.4) | 1 in 225 packs | $103 | 27% |
| Reverse holo | 153 | 67 (66–68) | 1 in 82 packs | $49.71 | 13% |
| Common | 66 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 17 packs | $27.25 | 7.1% |
| Ultra Rare | 16 | 2.3 (1.9–2.7) | 1 in 249 packs | $25.13 | 6.6% |
| Uncommon | 62 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 21 packs | $21.18 | 5.5% |
| Double Rare | 13 | 4.8 (4.2–5.3) | 1 in 98 packs | $19.39 | 5.1% |
| Rare | 25 | 29 (28–30) | 1 in 31 packs | $15.70 | 4.1% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 3 | 0.70 (0.47–0.93) | 1 in 155 packs | $6.77 | 1.8% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Charizard ex (MEW 199/165): 1 in 225 packs, 12% of the box value. $297
Blastoise ex (MEW 200/165): 1 in 225 packs, 4.4% of the box value. $105
Squirtle (MEW 170/165): 1 in 188 packs, 4.0% of the box value. $79.25
Charmander (MEW 168/165): 1 in 188 packs, 3.9% of the box value. $78.35
Venusaur ex (MEW 198/165): 1 in 225 packs, 3.7% of the box value. $87.83
Zapdos ex (MEW 202/165): 1 in 225 packs, 2.9% of the box value. $69.01
The most expensive MEW cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Charizard ex MEW 199/165Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $297 | €318 |
|
Blastoise ex MEW 200/165Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $105 | €112 |
|
Venusaur ex MEW 198/165Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $87.83 | €109 |
|
Zapdos ex MEW 202/165Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $69.01 | €104 |
|
Squirtle MEW 170/165Normal | Illustration Rare | $79.25 | — |
|
Charmander MEW 168/165Normal | Illustration Rare | $78.35 | — |
 |
Alakazam ex MEW 201/165Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $55.74 | €58.91 |
 |
Bulbasaur MEW 166/165Normal | Illustration Rare | $53.71 | — |
 |
Charmeleon MEW 169/165Normal | Illustration Rare | $51.76 | — |
 |
Mew ex MEW 205/165151 Metal Card | Double Rare | $23.33 | €39.58 |
 |
Wartortle MEW 171/165Normal | Illustration Rare | $43.84 | — |
 |
Ivysaur MEW 167/165Normal | Illustration Rare | $36.22 | — |
Sealed product
Booster pack 151 Booster Pack$26.27TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 1,500 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 8 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 16, Illustration Rare 1 in 12, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 32 and Hyper Rare 1 in 51. Special set (no 36-pack booster box). The foil Energy has its own slot and doesn't count. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.
Make a Scarlet & Violet 151 binder Open it in the Kolekto Market