Is a booster box of OBF worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a OBF box would get you $75.78, 20% of the $381 it costs. A typical box gives $65.71 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
OBF pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 12 | 2.7 (2.5–2.9) | 1 in 158 packs | $33.41 | 24% |
| Common | 92 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 23 packs | $22.19 | 16% |
| Special illustration | 6 | 1.1 (0.99–1.3) | 1 in 192 packs | $22.07 | 16% |
| Reverse holo | 176 | 67 (67–68) | 1 in 94 packs | $18.74 | 13% |
| Uncommon | 74 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 25 packs | $18.49 | 13% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 3 | 0.69 (0.59–0.80) | 1 in 156 packs | $8.87 | 6.2% |
| Ultra Rare | 12 | 2.4 (2.2–2.6) | 1 in 181 packs | $7.45 | 5.2% |
| Double Rare | 21 | 4.9 (4.6–5.2) | 1 in 154 packs | $6.08 | 4.3% |
| Rare | 10 | 29 (28–29) | 1 in 13 packs | $4.94 | 3.5% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Charizard ex (OBF 223/197): 1 in 192 packs, 11% of the box value. $86.48
Charizard ex (OBF 228/197): 1 in 156 packs, 5.4% of the box value. $33.42
Ninetales (OBF 199/197): 1 in 158 packs, 5.1% of the box value. $31.71
Cleffa (OBF 202/197): 1 in 158 packs, 4.8% of the box value. $30.14
Charizard ex (OBF 215/197): 1 in 181 packs, 2.9% of the box value. $20.50
Gloom (OBF 198/197): 1 in 158 packs, 2.8% of the box value. $17.66
The most expensive OBF cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Charizard ex OBF 223/197Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $86.48 | — |
|
Charizard ex OBF 228/197Normal | Hyper Rare | $33.42 | — |
|
Ninetales OBF 199/197Normal | Illustration Rare | $31.71 | €25.73 |
|
Charizard ex OBF 215/197Normal | Ultra Rare | $20.50 | — |
|
Cleffa OBF 202/197Normal | Illustration Rare | $30.14 | €16.89 |
 |
Pidgeot ex OBF 225/197Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $15.05 | €14.86 |
|
Gloom OBF 198/197Normal | Illustration Rare | $17.66 | €12.60 |
 |
Scizor OBF 205/197Normal | Illustration Rare | $11.57 | — |
 |
Pidgey OBF 207/197Normal | Illustration Rare | $10.49 | €8.20 |
 |
Pidgeotto OBF 208/197Normal | Illustration Rare | $8.29 | €6.52 |
 |
Eiscue ex OBF 222/197Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $6.24 | — |
 |
Lechonk OBF 209/197Normal | Illustration Rare | $10.65 | €5.22 |
OBF booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Obsidian Flames Booster Box$381TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Obsidian Flames Booster Pack$12.65TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 7 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, Illustration Rare 1 in 13, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 32 and Hyper Rare 1 in 52. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.