Is a booster box of PAR worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a PAR box would get you $78.93, 28% of the $282 it costs. A typical box gives $73.66 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
PAR pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 34 | 2.8 (2.6–3.0) | 1 in 442 packs | $54.12 | 39% |
| Common | 81 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 20 packs | $19.64 | 14% |
| Uncommon | 54 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 18 packs | $16.24 | 12% |
| Reverse holo | 162 | 68 (68–68) | 1 in 86 packs | $15.72 | 11% |
| Special illustration | 15 | 0.76 (0.65–0.87) | 1 in 711 packs | $13.53 | 9.7% |
| Ultra Rare | 28 | 2.4 (2.2–2.6) | 1 in 422 packs | $8.08 | 5.8% |
| Rare | 27 | 28 (28–28) | 1 in 35 packs | $5.31 | 3.8% |
| Double Rare | 20 | 5.6 (5.3–5.9) | 1 in 129 packs | $5.16 | 3.7% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 7 | 0.44 (0.36–0.52) | 1 in 574 packs | $2.20 | 1.6% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Groudon (PAR 199/182): 1 in 442 packs, 5.3% of the box value. $90.70
Morpeko (PAR 206/182): 1 in 442 packs, 3.5% of the box value. $59.98
Minun (PAR 194/182): 1 in 442 packs, 2.6% of the box value. $44.70
Plusle (PAR 193/182): 1 in 442 packs, 2.5% of the box value. $42.81
Steelix (PAR 208/182): 1 in 442 packs, 1.9% of the box value. $32.67
Mantyke (PAR 189/182): 1 in 442 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $30.15
The most expensive PAR cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Groudon PAR 199/182Normal | Illustration Rare | $90.70 | €94.14 |
|
Morpeko PAR 206/182Normal | Illustration Rare | $59.98 | — |
 |
Altaria ex PAR 253/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $43.67 | €40.51 |
 |
Roaring Moon ex PAR 251/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $27.15 | €32.38 |
|
Steelix PAR 208/182Normal | Illustration Rare | $32.67 | — |
|
Plusle PAR 193/182Normal | Illustration Rare | $42.81 | €27.87 |
 |
Garchomp ex PAR 245/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $30.66 | — |
|
Minun PAR 194/182Normal | Illustration Rare | $44.70 | €25.93 |
 |
Minior PAR 201/182Normal | Illustration Rare | $27.24 | — |
 |
Gholdengo ex PAR 252/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $29.41 | €22.96 |
 |
Joltik PAR 196/182Normal | Illustration Rare | $25.35 | — |
 |
Tapu Koko ex PAR 247/182Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $17.26 | €21.97 |
PAR booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Paradox Rift Booster Box$282TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Paradox Rift Booster Pack$8.70TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 6 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, Illustration Rare 1 in 13, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 47 and Hyper Rare 1 in 82. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.