Is a booster box of PAF worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a PAF box would get you $201, 23% of the $869 it costs. A typical box gives $120 and only 5.5% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
PAF pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration | 8 | 0.62 (0.40–0.84) | 1 in 465 packs | $102 | 39% |
| Shiny | 120 | 9.2 (8.4–9.9) | 1 in 472 packs | $75.66 | 29% |
| Shiny Ultra | 12 | 2.8 (2.3–3.2) | 1 in 156 packs | $15.45 | 6.0% |
| Common | 40 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 10 packs | $15.23 | 5.9% |
| Uncommon | 25 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 8 packs | $13.74 | 5.3% |
| Reverse holo | 81 | 56 (54–58) | 1 in 52 packs | $12.93 | 5.0% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 6 | 0.58 (0.37–0.79) | 1 in 372 packs | $5.87 | 2.3% |
| Illustration | 3 | 2.6 (2.2–3.0) | 1 in 42 packs | $5.47 | 2.1% |
| Double Rare | 10 | 5.7 (5.1–6.3) | 1 in 63 packs | $5.40 | 2.1% |
| Rare | 16 | 28 (27–29) | 1 in 21 packs | $4.97 | 1.9% |
| Ultra Rare | 5 | 2.4 (2.0–2.8) | 1 in 76 packs | $1.83 | 0.7% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Mew ex (PAF 232/091): 1 in 465 packs, 25% of the box value. $829
Charizard ex (PAF 234/091): 1 in 465 packs, 7.8% of the box value. $262
Gardevoir ex (PAF 233/091): 1 in 465 packs, 4.7% of the box value. $156
Mew ex (PAF 216/091): 1 in 155 packs, 3.4% of the box value. $37.64
Pikachu (PAF 131/091): 1 in 472 packs, 2.2% of the box value. $74.02
Snorlax (PAF 202/091): 1 in 472 packs, 1.3% of the box value. $45.32
The most expensive PAF cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mew ex PAF 232/091Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $829 | €546 |
|
Charizard ex PAF 234/091Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $262 | €279 |
|
Gardevoir ex PAF 233/091Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $156 | €124 |
|
Pikachu PAF 131/091Normal | Shiny Rare | $74.02 | — |
 |
Charmander PAF 109/091Normal | Shiny Rare | $34.34 | — |
 |
Mimikyu PAF 160/091Normal | Shiny Rare | $45.00 | €30.14 |
|
Mew ex PAF 216/091Normal | Shiny Ultra Rare | $37.64 | €29.17 |
|
Snorlax PAF 202/091Normal | Shiny Rare | $45.32 | €26.09 |
 |
Ditto PAF 201/091Normal | Shiny Rare | $35.71 | €18.31 |
 |
Clive PAF 236/091Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $19.84 | €18.27 |
 |
Slowbro PAF 117/091Normal | Shiny Rare | $20.02 | — |
 |
Raichu PAF 132/091Normal | Shiny Rare | $19.61 | — |
Sealed product
Booster pack Paldean Fates Booster Pack$24.14TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 1,500 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 6 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, Shiny Rare 1 in 4, Shiny Ultra Rare 1 in 13, Illustration Rare 1 in 14, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 58 and Hyper Rare 1 in 62. Special set (no 36-pack booster box). Shiny cards take the first reverse holo slot. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.