Is a booster box of TEF worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a TEF box would get you $121, 37% of the $323 it costs. A typical box gives $116 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
TEF pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 22 | 2.8 (2.6–3.0) | 1 in 285 packs | $65.52 | 35% |
| Common | 71 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 18 packs | $25.09 | 14% |
| Reverse holo | 140 | 67 (66–67) | 1 in 76 packs | $20.48 | 11% |
| Uncommon | 55 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 18 packs | $18.91 | 10% |
| Ultra Rare | 18 | 2.4 (2.2–2.6) | 1 in 270 packs | $14.42 | 7.7% |
| Special illustration | 10 | 0.42 (0.34–0.50) | 1 in 855 packs | $14.37 | 7.7% |
| ACE SPEC | 7 | 1.8 (1.6–2.0) | 1 in 140 packs | $9.93 | 5.3% |
| Double Rare | 15 | 6.1 (5.8–6.3) | 1 in 89 packs | $7.73 | 4.2% |
| Rare | 14 | 28 (27–28) | 1 in 18 packs | $6.67 | 3.6% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 6 | 0.26 (0.19–0.32) | 1 in 834 packs | $2.92 | 1.6% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Gastly (TEF 177/162): 1 in 285 packs, 5.9% of the box value. $86.50
Gengar ex (TEF 193/162): 1 in 270 packs, 3.6% of the box value. $50.54
Hero's Cape (TEF 152/162): 1 in 140 packs, 3.3% of the box value. $23.97
Sawsbuck (TEF 166/162): 1 in 285 packs, 3.3% of the box value. $48.75
Deerling (TEF 165/162): 1 in 285 packs, 2.7% of the box value. $39.96
Metang (TEF 114/162): 1 in 18 packs, 2.5% of the box value. $2.31
The most expensive TEF cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gastly TEF 177/162Normal | Illustration Rare | $86.50 | €88.38 |
|
Sawsbuck TEF 166/162Normal | Illustration Rare | $48.75 | €82.63 |
 |
Morty's Conviction TEF 211/162Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $47.36 | €56.40 |
 |
Walking Wake ex TEF 205/162Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $38.37 | €52.72 |
 |
Raging Bolt ex TEF 208/162Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $56.55 | — |
 |
Iron Crown ex TEF 206/162Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $43.86 | — |
 |
Gouging Fire ex TEF 204/162Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $48.83 | €36.55 |
 |
Litten TEF 167/162Normal | Illustration Rare | $36.88 | — |
 |
Cinccino TEF 183/162Normal | Illustration Rare | $34.64 | — |
|
Gengar ex TEF 193/162Normal | Ultra Rare | $50.54 | €29.31 |
 |
Iron Leaves ex TEF 203/162Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $29.59 | €24.51 |
 |
Bianca's Devotion TEF 209/162Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $25.70 | €23.00 |
TEF booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Temporal Forces Booster Box$323TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Temporal Forces Booster Pack$10.54TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 6 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, ACE SPEC 1 in 20, Illustration Rare 1 in 13, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 86 and Hyper Rare 1 in 139. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.