Is a booster box of SCR worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SCR box would get you $89.67, 29% of the $307 it costs. A typical box gives $72.24 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
SCR pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 13 | 2.8 (2.6–3.0) | 1 in 167 packs | $55.56 | 36% |
| Common | 71 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 18 packs | $28.31 | 18% |
| Reverse holo | 125 | 67 (66–67) | 1 in 67 packs | $20.41 | 13% |
| Uncommon | 39 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 13 packs | $15.37 | 9.9% |
| Special illustration | 6 | 0.40 (0.32–0.48) | 1 in 540 packs | $12.71 | 8.1% |
| Ultra Rare | 11 | 2.4 (2.2–2.6) | 1 in 163 packs | $7.66 | 4.9% |
| Double Rare | 14 | 6.1 (5.8–6.4) | 1 in 83 packs | $7.52 | 4.8% |
| Rare | 15 | 27 (27–28) | 1 in 20 packs | $5.70 | 3.7% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 3 | 0.26 (0.20–0.33) | 1 in 411 packs | $2.00 | 1.3% |
| ACE SPEC | 3 | 1.8 (1.6–1.9) | 1 in 61 packs | $0.70 | 0.4% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Bulbasaur (SCR 143/142): 1 in 167 packs, 12% of the box value. $88.08
Squirtle (SCR 148/142): 1 in 167 packs, 12% of the box value. $87.66
Slowpoke (SCR 057/142): 1 in 18 packs, 3.4% of the box value. $2.60
Dachsbun ex (SCR 169/142): 1 in 540 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $69.07
Milcery (SCR 152/142): 1 in 167 packs, 2.0% of the box value. $14.29
Gulpin (SCR 154/142): 1 in 167 packs, 1.8% of the box value. $12.95
The most expensive SCR cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Squirtle SCR 148/142Normal | Illustration Rare | $87.66 | €71.39 |
|
Bulbasaur SCR 143/142Normal | Illustration Rare | $88.08 | €60.67 |
|
Dachsbun ex SCR 169/142Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $69.07 | €33.25 |
 |
Terapagos ex SCR 170/142Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $33.56 | — |
 |
Hydrapple ex SCR 167/142Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $39.31 | €26.21 |
 |
Galvantula ex SCR 168/142Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $19.28 | €16.56 |
 |
Lacey SCR 172/142Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $18.04 | €13.76 |
 |
Briar SCR 171/142Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $11.32 | €12.73 |
 |
Terapagos ex SCR 173/142Normal | Hyper Rare | $11.18 | — |
 |
Zeraora SCR 151/142Normal | Illustration Rare | $9.84 | €9.12 |
 |
Area Zero Underdepths SCR 174/142Normal | Hyper Rare | $8.14 | €9.00 |
|
Gulpin SCR 154/142Normal | Illustration Rare | $12.95 | €8.86 |
SCR booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Stellar Crown Booster Box$307TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Stellar Crown Booster Pack$10.70TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 6 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, ACE SPEC 1 in 20, Illustration Rare 1 in 13, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 90 and Hyper Rare 1 in 137. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.