Is a booster box of SFA worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SFA box would get you $136, 30% of the $451 it costs. A typical box gives $134 and only 0.0% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: fair (community estimate).
SFA pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 15 | 3.0 (2.5–3.5) | 1 in 180 packs | $85.29 | 42% |
| Double Rare | 6 | 7.2 (6.5–7.9) | 1 in 30 packs | $19.28 | 9.6% |
| Common | 28 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 7 packs | $19.13 | 9.5% |
| Reverse holo | 63 | 66 (65–68) | 1 in 34 packs | $19.11 | 9.5% |
| Uncommon | 20 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 7 packs | $18.14 | 9.0% |
| Special illustration | 5 | 0.54 (0.32–0.76) | 1 in 336 packs | $14.43 | 7.2% |
| Ultra Rare | 10 | 2.4 (1.9–2.9) | 1 in 150 packs | $12.04 | 6.0% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 5 | 0.25 (0.097–0.40) | 1 in 726 packs | $6.82 | 3.4% |
| Rare | 7 | 26 (25–28) | 1 in 10 packs | $5.32 | 2.6% |
| ACE SPEC | 3 | 1.8 (1.4–2.2) | 1 in 60 packs | $1.48 | 0.7% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Persian (SFA 078/064): 1 in 180 packs, 6.5% of the box value. $65.36
Houndoom (SFA 066/064): 1 in 180 packs, 5.5% of the box value. $54.89
Pecharunt ex (SFA 039/064): 1 in 30 packs, 5.2% of the box value. $8.73
Duskull (SFA 068/064): 1 in 180 packs, 4.4% of the box value. $44.53
Horsea (SFA 067/064): 1 in 180 packs, 4.1% of the box value. $40.76
Dusknoir (SFA 070/064): 1 in 180 packs, 3.0% of the box value. $30.40
The most expensive SFA cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Persian SFA 078/064Normal | Illustration Rare | $65.36 | €49.73 |
 |
Basic Darkness Energy SFA 098/064Normal | Hyper Rare | $53.96 | — |
|
Houndoom SFA 066/064Normal | Illustration Rare | $54.89 | €36.93 |
|
Horsea SFA 067/064Normal | Illustration Rare | $40.76 | — |
 |
Pecharunt ex SFA 095/064Normal | Hyper Rare | $22.21 | €26.42 |
 |
Basic Metal Energy SFA 099/064Normal | Hyper Rare | $28.43 | — |
 |
Cassiopeia SFA 094/064Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $39.60 | €25.07 |
 |
Fezandipiti ex SFA 092/064Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $33.20 | €24.00 |
|
Duskull SFA 068/064Normal | Illustration Rare | $44.53 | €22.79 |
 |
Powerglass SFA 097/064Normal | Hyper Rare | $18.22 | €22.04 |
 |
Earthen Vessel SFA 096/064Normal | Hyper Rare | $14.74 | €21.77 |
 |
Dusclops SFA 069/064Normal | Illustration Rare | $28.71 | €21.15 |
Sealed product
Booster pack Shrouded Fable Booster Pack$12.53TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
Community tally compiled by TCGTalk (about 1,500 packs): Double Rare 1 in 5 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, ACE SPEC 1 in 20, Illustration Rare 1 in 12, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 67 and Hyper Rare 1 in 145. 95% range computed from that sample size. Special set (no 36-pack booster box). Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgtalk.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.