Is a booster box of SSP worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a SSP box would get you $62.04, 20% of the $304 it costs. A typical box gives $43.90 and only 0.1% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
SSP pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special illustration | 11 | 0.41 (0.34–0.49) | 1 in 957 packs | $24.79 | 20% |
| Illustration | 23 | 2.8 (2.6–3.0) | 1 in 300 packs | $20.07 | 16% |
| Common | 88 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 22 packs | $19.42 | 16% |
| Reverse holo | 165 | 67 (66–67) | 1 in 89 packs | $17.26 | 14% |
| Uncommon | 61 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 20 packs | $15.03 | 12% |
| Double Rare | 18 | 6.1 (5.8–6.4) | 1 in 106 packs | $7.94 | 6.5% |
| Ultra Rare | 21 | 2.4 (2.2–2.6) | 1 in 312 packs | $7.76 | 6.3% |
| Rare | 16 | 27 (27–28) | 1 in 21 packs | $4.89 | 4.0% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 6 | 0.19 (0.14–0.25) | 1 in 1,131 packs | $3.30 | 2.7% |
| ACE SPEC | 8 | 1.8 (1.6–2.0) | 1 in 159 packs | $1.81 | 1.5% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Pikachu ex (SSP 238/191): 1 in 957 packs, 7.4% of the box value. $241
Latias ex (SSP 239/191): 1 in 957 packs, 5.2% of the box value. $167
Milotic ex (SSP 237/191): 1 in 957 packs, 3.1% of the box value. $101
Latios (SSP 203/191): 1 in 300 packs, 2.7% of the box value. $27.90
Pikachu ex (SSP 219/191): 1 in 312 packs, 2.3% of the box value. $24.49
Latias ex (SSP 076/191): 1 in 106 packs, 1.9% of the box value. $6.84
The most expensive SSP cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Pikachu ex SSP 238/191Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $241 | €220 |
|
Latias ex SSP 239/191Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $167 | — |
|
Milotic ex SSP 237/191Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $101 | €126 |
 |
Pikachu ex SSP 247/191Normal | Hyper Rare | $66.89 | €57.03 |
 |
Hydreigon ex SSP 240/191Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $30.15 | €31.24 |
|
Latios SSP 203/191Normal | Illustration Rare | $27.90 | €28.90 |
 |
Lisia's Appeal SSP 246/191Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $20.48 | €26.63 |
 |
Alolan Exeggutor ex SSP 242/191Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $23.05 | €25.70 |
 |
Durant ex SSP 236/191Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $30.94 | €22.33 |
|
Pikachu ex SSP 219/191Normal | Ultra Rare | $24.49 | €21.00 |
 |
Jasmine's Gaze SSP 245/191Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $19.50 | €18.34 |
 |
Ceruledge SSP 197/191Normal | Illustration Rare | $18.78 | €15.18 |
SSP booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Surging Sparks Booster Box$304TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Surging Sparks Booster Pack$8.70TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 6 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, ACE SPEC 1 in 20, Illustration Rare 1 in 13, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 87 and Hyper Rare 1 in 188. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
Open it in the Kolekto Market
Tweak the rates, choose between the box and loose packs and see how 10,000 simulated boxes turn out.