Is a booster box of TWM worth opening?
On average, no: selling the cards from a TWM box would get you $83.04, 25% of the $334 it costs. A typical box gives $67.71 and only 0.3% of boxes get your money back. If you're after a specific card, buying it as a single is usually cheaper.
How reliable the rates are: good (several sources that agree).
TWM pull rates
How many cards of each rarity group come in a 36-pack box, how many packs it takes to pull one specific card of the group and how much the group adds to the box value.
| Rarity | Cards | Per box | One specific | Adds | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration | 21 | 2.8 (2.6–3.0) | 1 in 272 packs | $38.96 | 26% |
| Special illustration | 11 | 0.42 (0.34–0.50) | 1 in 941 packs | $23.14 | 15% |
| Common | 76 | 144 (144–144) | 1 in 19 packs | $22.85 | 15% |
| Reverse holo | 147 | 67 (66–67) | 1 in 79 packs | $18.85 | 12% |
| Uncommon | 55 | 108 (108–108) | 1 in 18 packs | $18.34 | 12% |
| Ultra Rare | 21 | 2.4 (2.2–2.6) | 1 in 318 packs | $8.64 | 5.7% |
| ACE SPEC | 6 | 1.8 (1.7–2.0) | 1 in 119 packs | $8.09 | 5.3% |
| Rare | 16 | 28 (27–28) | 1 in 21 packs | $6.52 | 4.3% |
| Double Rare | 14 | 6.1 (5.8–6.4) | 1 in 83 packs | $5.61 | 3.7% |
| Hyper Rare (gold) | 6 | 0.25 (0.18–0.31) | 1 in 882 packs | $1.77 | 1.2% |
The cards that carry the box
What weighs most in the expected value: expensive cards that are hard to pull.
Eevee (TWM 188/167): 1 in 272 packs, 6.2% of the box value. $71.99
Greninja ex (TWM 214/167): 1 in 941 packs, 5.9% of the box value. $236
Chansey (TWM 187/167): 1 in 272 packs, 3.9% of the box value. $44.60
Perrin (TWM 220/167): 1 in 941 packs, 3.5% of the box value. $141
Unfair Stamp (TWM 165/167): 1 in 119 packs, 2.9% of the box value. $14.81
Hisuian Growlithe (TWM 181/167): 1 in 272 packs, 2.2% of the box value. $25.02
The most expensive TWM cards
Their version and today's TCGplayer and Cardmarket price.
| Card | Rarity | TCGplayer | Cardmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Greninja ex TWM 214/167Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $236 | — |
|
Eevee TWM 188/167Normal | Illustration Rare | $71.99 | €88.26 |
|
Perrin TWM 220/167Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $141 | €79.73 |
|
Chansey TWM 187/167Normal | Illustration Rare | $44.60 | €30.04 |
 |
Carmine TWM 217/167Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $41.25 | €29.38 |
 |
Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex TWM 216/167Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $42.73 | €27.53 |
 |
Kieran TWM 218/167Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $26.48 | €21.76 |
 |
Lana's Aid TWM 219/167Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $28.83 | €21.64 |
 |
Sinistcha ex TWM 210/167Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $34.25 | €19.69 |
 |
Teal Mask Ogerpon ex TWM 211/167Normal | Special Illustration Rare | $19.69 | €17.99 |
|
Hisuian Growlithe TWM 181/167Normal | Illustration Rare | $25.02 | €16.78 |
 |
Tatsugiri TWM 186/167Normal | Illustration Rare | $21.24 | €14.08 |
TWM booster box price over the last year
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Sealed product
Booster box Twilight Masquerade Booster Box$334TCGplayer market price
Booster pack Twilight Masquerade Booster Pack$9.26TCGplayer market price
Where the numbers come from
The expected value adds up, for each rarity group, the copies in a box times the average price of its cards (the English card, with its TCGplayer price or, if there isn't one, Cardmarket's converted). The simulation opens 10,000 boxes with the same rates.
TCGplayer study of more than 8,000 opened packs (95% confidence interval): Double Rare 1 in 6 packs, Ultra Rare 1 in 15, ACE SPEC 1 in 20, Illustration Rare 1 in 13, Special Illustration Rare 1 in 86 and Hyper Rare 1 in 146. Commons, uncommons, rares and reverse holos come from the pack layout (4 commons, 3 uncommons, 2 reverse holo slots and 1 rare or better).
Pull rate sources: tcgplayer.com (opens in a new tab)
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